Collaborative Research: P2C2--El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Variability Changes during Abrupt Climate Events

合作研究：P2C2--厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）在气候突变事件期间的变率变化

• 批准号: 2103092
• 负责人: Judson Partin
• 金额: $ 115.08万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2103092&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; El; Ni

The research team aims to reconstruct changes in variability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the last deglacial period by measuring coral delta O-18 on previously collected samples from Vanuatu in the tropical southwestern Pacific Ocean. Modern coral delta O-18records from Vanuatu and pseudoproxy experiments show a high degree of skill in capturing changes in ENSO variability, providing confidence that the resulting records can be used to reconstruct past ENSO variability. The researchers will compare the reconstructions to climate model output of ENSO during previous glacial times when Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was both vigorous and sluggish. The research team’s current hypotheses, based on climate model output, is that ENSO was reduced during glacial times, relative to modern, and that ENSO was more active when AMOC was shutdown, relative to contemporaneous glacial times when AMOC was active. The team will conduct hosing model experiments under glacial boundary conditions to test the sensitivity of ENSO and AMOC changes to background conditions. The research will also investigate how non-stationarity of ENSO may affect the skills of Vanuatu corals by using an ensemble of climate models run under different climate boundary conditions. The project may help shed light on the sensitivity of ENSO to external forcing, a highly critical issue given that climate models used for future climate projections do not agree if ENSO will strengthen or weaken as the Earth warms.The potential Broader Impacts include a deeper understanding of ENSO variability, development of a new drilling system for field research, involvement of graduate and undergraduate students in the research including undergraduates at a primarily undergraduate teaching institution.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

研究小组的目的是通过测量先前从热带西南太平洋的瓦努阿图（Vanuatu）的样品中测量珊瑚三角洲O-18的珊瑚三角洲O-18，重建El Nino/Southern振荡（ENSO）变异性的变化。来自Vanuatu和Pseudoproxy实验的现代珊瑚三角洲O-18记录显示出高度的捕获ENSO变异性变化的技能，提供了信心，即可以使用结果记录来重建过去的ENSO变异性。研究人员将将重建与ENSO的气候模型输出进行比较，而在大西洋子午倾覆循环（AMOC）既剧烈又缓慢。研究团队基于气候模型输出的当前假设是，相对于现代化的冰川时代，ENSO在冰川时期减少了，而在AMOC关闭时，ENSO相对于AMOC活跃时的同时冰川时代时更为活跃。该团队将在冰川边界条件下进行HORS模型实验，以测试ENSO和AMOC对背景条件的敏感性。这项研究还将研究ENSO的非平稳性如何通过使用在不同气候边界条件下运行的攀岩模型来影响瓦努阿图珊瑚的技能。该项目可能有助于阐明ENSO对外部强迫的敏感性，这是一个高度关键的问题，因为用于未来攀登项目的攀登模型不同意ENSO是否会随着地球的温暖而加强或虚弱。潜在的更广泛的影响包括对ENSO变异性的更深入的了解，对新的钻探系统的发展，包括野外研究的新钻探系统，包括研究生少于研究生的研究生，这是一名研究生少于一生的研究生，该研究的研究生不足，这是一项研究生的研究。 NSF的法定使命，并通过评估诚实地认为，使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。