P2C2: Western Pacific Warm Pool Hydroclimate during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Deglaciation

P2C2：末次盛冰期和冰消期期间的西太平洋暖池水文气候

• 批准号: 1404003
• 负责人: Judson Partin
• 金额: $ 53万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-15 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1404003&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Western; Pacific; Warm; Pool

The West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) plays an important role in the global hydrological cycle, and its variability has significant socioeconomic consequences around the world. Understanding past climate conditions can improve predictions of future climate changes in this key region and beyond. This study will extend both the spatial and temporal resolution of paleoclimate data for the WPWP by studying cave formations (stalagmites) for two key periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19,000-21,000 years ago), when the mean climate was much colder than today, and the deglaciation (11,000-19,000 years ago), during which the global climate went through abrupt changes. Comparison between the cave data from a network of sites and model outputs will strengthen the climate interpretations made, and will improve the fidelity of both the reconstructions and the climate models. This study will generate time series of stalagmite d18O, an established proxy for rainfall amount in the tropics, from the Philippines (eastern, central, and western sites), the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu. These sites cover a wide range of precipitation variability, as seen during the modern era, and will provide information about past climate variability at sites that currently have little to no data. This study will sample the full range of the WPWP hydrologic response to climate change by reconstructing rainfall from the LGM to the Holocene. The end members of the cold LGM and the warm Holocene provide a measure of how sensitive WPWP rainfall is to global mean temperature. The temporal evolution during the deglaciation reveals the magnitude and spatial pattern of WPWP rainfall changes associated with abrupt climate events, and how much of a role the tropics participate in these events. The proxy data will be compared with various climate model simulations from the CMIP5 and PMIP2/PMIP3 archives and other sources, focusing on the spatial pattern and seasonality of climate changes, as well as the commonalities and diversity of different models. To investigate the teleconnection mechanisms of past abrupt climate changes, additional experiments will also be conducted with an atmospheric model. The proxy-model comparison will help validate climate models, which are being used for future climate projections, and the detailed model analysis and additional experiments will elucidate the mechanism of past abrupt climate changes. The research team will work closely with local scientists in the developing countries of Vanuatu and the Philippines, exchanging knowledge about climate issues and water availability, issues that have societal and security implications for small island nations. The project will provide a research experience an undergraduate student recruited through the GEOFORCE program, which is a selective outreach program of the Jackson School of Geosciences that trains high school students, mainly from demographic underrepresented in the geosciences, and involves them in fieldwork.

西太平洋温暖池（WPWP）在全球水文周期中起着重要作用，其可变性在世界范围内具有重大的社会经济后果。了解过去的气候条件可以改善对该关键区域及其他地区未来气候变化的预测。这项研究将通过研究两个关键时期的洞穴形成（Stalagmites）来扩展WPWP古气候数据的空间和时间分辨率：最后的冰川最大值（LGM; 19,000-21,000年前），当时平均气候比今天的平均气候更冷，并且在年前（11,000-19，000年前）（11,000-19，000年前）（在全球上进行了更改）。来自站点网络和模型输出网络的洞穴数据之间的比较将增强气候解释，并将提高重建和气候模型的忠诚度。这项研究将产生Stalagmite D18O的时间序列，这是来自菲律宾（东部，中部和西部地点），所罗门群岛和瓦努阿图的既定降雨量代理。这些站点涵盖了现代时代所见的各种降水可变性，并将提供有关目前几乎没有数据的站点的过去气候变异性的信息。这项研究将通过重建从LGM到全新世的降雨来采样WPWP水文对气候变化的全部水平反应。冷LGM和温暖全新世的最终成员提供了一种衡量WPWP降雨对全球平均温度的敏感程度。脱气过程中的时间演化揭示了与突然的气候事件相关的WPWP降雨变化的大小和空间模式，以及热带地区参与这些事件的作用。代理数据将与CMIP5和PMIP2/PMIP3档案中的各种气候模型模拟以及其他来源进行比较，重点是气候变化的空间模式和季节性，以及不同模型的共同点和多样性。为了调查过去突然气候变化的遥控机制，还将通过大气模型进行其他实验。代理模型比较将有助于验证气候模型，这些模型被用于未来的气候预测，详细的模型分析和其他实验将阐明过去突然的气候变化的机制。研究团队将与瓦努阿图和菲律宾发展中国家的当地科学家紧密合作，交流有关气候问题和水的知识，这些问题对小岛国家对社会和安全的影响。该项目将为通过Geoforce计划招募的本科生提供研究经验，该计划是杰克逊地球科学学院的选择性外展计划，该计划培训了高中生，主要来自地球科学中人群不足的人群，并使他们参与了领域。