RAPID: Investigating the Causal Propositions of the Affect Heuristic During an Ongoing Pandemic

RAPID：调查持续流行期间影响启发式的因果命题

• 批准号: 2027296
• 负责人: William Burns
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Decision Science Research Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-05-01 至 2021-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2027296&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Investigating; Causal; Propositions; Affect

The unprecedented pandemic wrought by the coronavirus has infected many people around the world, triggering anxiety and panic and disrupting all facets of life. In addition to the growing numbers of cases and deaths, the social, economic, and political impacts are vast. Lacking a vaccine or effective therapeutic cure, the front line of defense against the spread of this disease depends on human behavior, following guidelines about social distancing, sanitation, and other recommended measures. There is great uncertainty about the future trajectory of the disease and its impacts. Against the backdrop of this catastrophic threat this research forecasts public perceptions of risks, including hopes and fears, using a new theoretical model based on what is known as “the affect heuristic.” The researchers build and test this model in two ways that increase understanding of how positive and negative emotions, influenced by daily news reports, interact to guide behavior. Understanding the changing reactions to news information not only advances understanding of risk perception, but enables the creation of effective risk communication messages. The research provides insight into the behaviors that will determine the course of the disease and can help to mitigate its harmful social and economic impacts.Studies have consistently found an inverse relationship between judgments of benefits and risks associated with a wide array of hazards. This relationship occurs because perceptions of risk and benefit are derived in opposite ways from an affective sense of the importance of the risk. This process became known as the affect heuristic. The causal dynamics that underlie the relationship between affect and perceived risks and benefits remain poorly understood. This project does three things: (1a) constructs a system dynamics simulation model that explicitly incorporates the informational feedback loops that allow affect to play this moderating role and (1b) simulates the trajectories of affect and perceived risk and benefits as the coronavirus pandemic unfolds, (2) constructs a hybrid agent-based model that incorporates findings from the systems model but allows for heterogeneity (e.g., different levels of medical vulnerability) among agents, and (3) conducts a longitudinal national panel to survey the public’s response to the pandemic over a 6 month period. These data together with data from an independent panel are be used to estimate and validate both models. This project has broad impacts because understanding how we manage our perceptions of risk and benefits is critical to the decisions we make and our behaviors. The project helps to explain this entanglement and predict public reaction to the current pandemic and, potentially, to other crises.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

冠状病毒造成的前所未有的大流行已经感染了世界各地的许多人，引发了焦虑和恐慌，扰乱了生活的各个方面，除了病例和死亡人数不断增加之外，其社会、经济和政治影响也是巨大的。无论是疫苗还是有效的治疗方法，抵御这种疾病传播的第一道防线取决于人类行为，遵循有关社交距离、卫生和其他建议措施的指导方针，该疾病的未来发展轨迹及其影响存在很大的不确定性。在此背景下这项研究使用基于“影响启发式”的新理论模型来预测公众对风险的看法，包括希望和恐惧。研究人员以两种方式构建和测试该模型，以加深对积极和消极影响的理解。受每日新闻报道影响的情绪相互作用，以指导行为。了解对新闻信息的不断变化的反应不仅可以增进对风险认知的理解，而且可以帮助创建有效的风险沟通信息。的疾病，并有助于减轻其有害的社会和经济影响。研究一致发现，对各种危害的收益和风险的判断之间存在反比关系。这种关系的出现是因为对风险和收益的看法是从对风险过程重要性的情感感知中以相反的方式得出的。该项目做了三件事：（1a）构建了一个系统动力学模拟模型，该模型明确地包含了允许影响的信息反馈循环。玩这个调节作用，(1b) 模拟随着冠状病毒大流行的影响和感知风险和收益的轨迹，(2) 构建一个基于混合代理的模型，该模型结合了系统模型的发现，但允许异质性（例如，不同水平的医疗(3) 开展纵向全国小组调查公众在 6 个月内对流感大流行的反应，这些数据与独立小组的数据一起用于估计和验证这两个模型。影响广泛，因为了解我们如何管理我们对风险和收益的看法对于我们做出的决定和我们的行为至关重要。该项目有助于解释这种纠葛并预测公众对当前大流行病以及可能对其他危机的反应。该奖项反映了这一点。通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，NSF 的法定使命被认为值得支持。