DRU Modeling Community Response and Economic Impacts of Risk Amplification Following a Terrorist Strike

DRU 对恐怖袭击后风险放大的社区反应和经济影响进行建模

• 批准号: 0728934
• 负责人: William Burns
• 金额: $ 75万
• 依托单位: Decision Science Research Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0728934&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DRU; Modeling; Community; Response; Economic

This study seeks to model the dynamic complexity of a community's behavioral response to a terrorist strike and to estimate the economic impacts of this response. Emergency response systems, information and communication channels, and social support organizations are likely to interact with the particular characteristics of a terrorist event to both amplify and mute these impacts. What factors are most important to adequately forecast the broader impacts of a disaster and most particularly a terrorist strike? How can risk perception be incorporated into an economic model that predicts regional or national impacts? How does resilience (the ability of a community to maintain function when shocked) affect predicted responses to catastrophic events? How do these factors change and interact over time, and what are the important mechanisms that drive such change, especially system feedbacks and delays? How do responses to risk differ across gender, age, ethnicity, and income? What perspectives does a community bring to a crisis that helps or hinders its ability to prepare, respond and recover? What policies can be implemented that may mitigate the broader and long-term impacts of such an event? The investigators will develop statistical and economic models. Interviews with community leaders and first responders will provide input for assessing emergency response systems. Public response will be based on data gathered from a longitudinal survey using three scenarios (earthquake, bomb blast, anthrax release) that unfold over time consistent with crisis news reporting. An economy-wide model based on the behavior of individual businesses and consumers, informed by the risk perception surveys and analyses, will provide estimates of the direct and indirect impacts of risk amplification. First responders, health care providers, local administrators, and educators stand to directly benefit from a better understanding of the effects of their policies and practices. Findings from this project should prove especially useful to Homeland Security Officials. Researchers in areas such as risk assessment, communications, community planning, epidemiology, and risk perception will find the system dynamics model useful as a simulation tool for their own investigations.

本研究旨在模拟社区对恐怖袭击行为反应的动态复杂性，并估计这种反应的经济影响。 应急响应系统、信息和通信渠道以及社会支持组织可能会与恐怖事件的特定特征相互作用，从而放大或减弱这些影响。对于充分预测灾难（尤其是恐怖袭击）的更广泛影响，哪些因素最重要？如何将风险认知纳入预测区域或国家影响的经济模型中？复原力（社区在受到冲击时维持功能的能力）如何影响对灾难性事件的预测反应？这些因素如何随着时间的推移而变化和相互作用，驱动这种变化的重要机制是什么，特别是系统反馈和延迟？不同性别、年龄、种族和收入对风险的反应有何不同？社区对危机的看法有哪些，有助于或阻碍其准备、应对和恢复的能力？可以实施哪些政策来减轻此类事件的更广泛和长期影响？研究人员将开发统计和经济模型。与社区领袖和急救人员的访谈将为评估应急响应系统提供意见。公众的反应将基于纵向调查收集的数据，该调查使用三种情景（地震、炸弹爆炸、炭疽释放），这些情景随着时间的推移而展开，与危机新闻报道一致。基于个体企业和消费者行为的经济范围模型，通过风险认知调查和分析，将提供对风险放大的直接和间接影响的估计。 急救人员、医疗保健提供者、当地管理人员和教育工作者将直接受益于更好地了解其政策和实践的影响。该项目的调查结果对国土安全官员特别有用。风险评估、通信、社区规划、流行病学和风险感知等领域的研究人员会发现系统动力学模型可作为他们自己的调查的模拟工具。