RAPID: Local Residents' Responses to the 2018 Indonesia Earthquake and Tsunami

RAPID：当地居民对 2018 年印度尼西亚地震和海啸的反应

• 批准号: 1902888
• 负责人: Haizhong Wang
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-11-01 至 2020-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1902888&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Local; Residents; Responses; 2018

This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project examines fundamental issues on the evacuation time estimates associated with earthquake and tsunami hazards by linking social science warning research, transportation engineering, and casualty modeling. This devastating event to Palu and the nearby cities of Donggala and Mamuju, Indonesia is of major scientific relevance to American researchers because it is similar in nature to the predicted M9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. The Palu event has uniquely important implications to the coastal communities in the CSZ. First, the 20-ft tsunami generated by a M7.5 strike-slip earthquake resembles a similar local source of tsunami generation on the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast. Understanding people's behavioral responses to the Palu earthquake and tsunami can provide unique insights to improve the preparedness of PNW coastal communities and other coastal areas of United States. Second, the Palu event represents a "worst case scenario" (earthquake, tsunami, large inland flows of mud, and liquefaction, where soil failure swallowed 1,400 houses) in which the event happened at the same time a large number of people had congregated on a beach for a festival. It is clear that the densely populated coastal areas took heavy damage because of tsunami-generated large inland flows of mud. Intense ground shaking from the preceding earthquake may have triggered soil liquefaction and lateral spreading. These combined processes are also common near streams and on reclaimed land that can produce destructive mudslides in relatively flat areas on the PNW coast from the predicted CSZ event. Third, the unique geographic location of Palu sitting at the end of a narrow 10km-long finger-like bay likely amplified the fast-moving surge of water and wave energy on the relatively shallower seabed, exacerbating the damaging power of the tsunami on the affected people and communities. There are similar communities on the PNW coast located on this type of bay. Lastly, many PNW coastal communities suffer a similar lack of tsunami preparedness. In the CSZ, the threat of near-field tsunamis has been recognized only recently, so many communities have based their evacuation plans on far-field tsunami scenarios that provide 4-6 hours of forewarning. The difficulty of predicting such events with the current technology for earthquake and tsunami warning makes it essential to learn from the Palu event. In addition, a study of Palu tsunami evacuations will inform evacuation planning for other similar type rapid-onset disasters such as flash floods. This project uses the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collecting empirical data on people's behavioral responses to the Palu earthquake and tsunami. Questions include: How many people recognized the earthquake shaking as an environmental cue for a tsunami onset? How many people received warnings from officials, news media, and peers? How did people respond to the threat? This project uses a validated survey procedure previously used in American Samoa (2009), Christchurch (2011), Tohoku (2011), Cook Strait (2013), and Lake Grassmere (2013). Collected data focus on (1) the amount of time it took officials to decide to issue tsunami evacuation warnings; (2) the tsunami warning sources, channels, messages and warning dissemination times; (3) people's evacuation participation rates, preparation times, and departure times; and (4) people's evacuation logistics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该快速响应研究 (RAPID) 项目通过将社会科学预警研究、交通工程和伤亡建模联系起来，研究与地震和海啸灾害相关的疏散时间估计的基本问题。这次对印度尼西亚巴鲁及附近城市东加拉和马穆朱的毁灭性事件对美国研究人员来说具有重大科学意义，因为它的性质与预测的 M9.0 卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带 (CSZ) 地震相似。帕卢事件对 CSZ 沿海社区具有独特的重要影响。 首先，M7.5 走滑地震产生的 20 英尺海啸类似于太平洋西北 (PNW) 海岸的类似本地海啸产生源。了解人们对帕鲁地震和海啸的行为反应可以为改善 PNW 沿海社区和美国其他沿海地区的准备工作提供独特的见解。其次，巴鲁事件代表了“最糟糕的情况”（地震、海啸、大量泥浆内流以及液化，土壤溃烂吞没了 1,400 所房屋），该事件发生的同时，大量人员聚集在节日海滩。显然，由于海啸引发的大量泥浆内流，人口稠密的沿海地区遭受了严重破坏。上次地震引起的强烈地面震动可能引发了土壤液化和横向扩散。这些组合过程在溪流附近和填海土地上也很常见，这些过程可能会在预测的 CSZ 事件中在 PNW 海岸相对平坦的地区产生破坏性泥石流。第三，帕卢位于一个狭窄的10公里长的手指状海湾末端，其独特的地理位置很可能放大了相对较浅的海底快速移动的水流和波浪能，从而加剧了海啸对受影响地区的破坏力。人和社区。 PNW 海岸也有类似的社区位于此类海湾。最后，太平洋西北地区的许多沿海社区也同样缺乏海啸防备。在CSZ，近场海啸的威胁直到最近才被认识到，因此许多社区都根据提供4-6小时预警的远场海啸情景制定了疏散计划。利用现有的地震和海啸预警技术很难预测此类事件，因此有必要向巴鲁事件学习。此外，对巴鲁海啸疏散的研究将为山洪暴发等其他类似类型的快速灾害的疏散规划提供信息。 该项目使用保护行动决策模型（PADM）作为指南，收集人们对巴鲁地震和海啸的行为反应的经验数据。问题包括：有多少人认为地震震动是海啸爆发的环境信号？有多少人收到了来自官员、新闻媒体和同行的警告？人们如何应对威胁？ 该项目使用了先前在美属萨摩亚（2009 年）、基督城（2011 年）、东北地区（2011 年）、库克海峡（2013 年）和格拉斯米尔湖（2013 年）使用的经过验证的调查程序。收集的数据集中于（1）官员决定发布海啸疏散警报所需的时间； （二）海啸警报来源、渠道、信息和警报发布时间； （三）人员疏散参与率、准备时间、出发时间； (4) 人员疏散后勤。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，认为值得支持。