RAPID: Local Residents' Responses to the 2018 Indonesia Earthquake and Tsunami

RAPID：当地居民对 2018 年印度尼西亚地震和海啸的反应

• 批准号: 1902888
• 负责人: Haizhong Wang
• 金额: $ 3万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-11-01 至 2020-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1902888&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Local; Residents; Responses; 2018

This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project examines fundamental issues on the evacuation time estimates associated with earthquake and tsunami hazards by linking social science warning research, transportation engineering, and casualty modeling. This devastating event to Palu and the nearby cities of Donggala and Mamuju, Indonesia is of major scientific relevance to American researchers because it is similar in nature to the predicted M9.0 Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. The Palu event has uniquely important implications to the coastal communities in the CSZ. First, the 20-ft tsunami generated by a M7.5 strike-slip earthquake resembles a similar local source of tsunami generation on the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast. Understanding people's behavioral responses to the Palu earthquake and tsunami can provide unique insights to improve the preparedness of PNW coastal communities and other coastal areas of United States. Second, the Palu event represents a "worst case scenario" (earthquake, tsunami, large inland flows of mud, and liquefaction, where soil failure swallowed 1,400 houses) in which the event happened at the same time a large number of people had congregated on a beach for a festival. It is clear that the densely populated coastal areas took heavy damage because of tsunami-generated large inland flows of mud. Intense ground shaking from the preceding earthquake may have triggered soil liquefaction and lateral spreading. These combined processes are also common near streams and on reclaimed land that can produce destructive mudslides in relatively flat areas on the PNW coast from the predicted CSZ event. Third, the unique geographic location of Palu sitting at the end of a narrow 10km-long finger-like bay likely amplified the fast-moving surge of water and wave energy on the relatively shallower seabed, exacerbating the damaging power of the tsunami on the affected people and communities. There are similar communities on the PNW coast located on this type of bay. Lastly, many PNW coastal communities suffer a similar lack of tsunami preparedness. In the CSZ, the threat of near-field tsunamis has been recognized only recently, so many communities have based their evacuation plans on far-field tsunami scenarios that provide 4-6 hours of forewarning. The difficulty of predicting such events with the current technology for earthquake and tsunami warning makes it essential to learn from the Palu event. In addition, a study of Palu tsunami evacuations will inform evacuation planning for other similar type rapid-onset disasters such as flash floods. This project uses the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) as a guide to collecting empirical data on people's behavioral responses to the Palu earthquake and tsunami. Questions include: How many people recognized the earthquake shaking as an environmental cue for a tsunami onset? How many people received warnings from officials, news media, and peers? How did people respond to the threat? This project uses a validated survey procedure previously used in American Samoa (2009), Christchurch (2011), Tohoku (2011), Cook Strait (2013), and Lake Grassmere (2013). Collected data focus on (1) the amount of time it took officials to decide to issue tsunami evacuation warnings; (2) the tsunami warning sources, channels, messages and warning dissemination times; (3) people's evacuation participation rates, preparation times, and departure times; and (4) people's evacuation logistics.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项快速响应研究（快速）项目通过将社会科学警告研究，运输工程和伤亡建模联系起来，研究了与地震和海啸危害相关的疏散时间估计的基本问题。印度尼西亚的帕鲁（Palu）和附近的东谷（Donggala）和曼穆朱（Mamuju）的城市这一毁灭性事件与美国研究人员具有主要的科学相关性，因为它本质上与预测的M9.0 Cascadia俯冲区（CSZ）地震相似。帕鲁事件对CSZ的沿海社区具有独特的重要意义。 首先，由M7.5滑动地震产生的20英尺海啸类似于太平洋西北（PNW）海岸上海啸的类似当地来源。了解人们对帕鲁地震和海啸的行为反应可以提供独特的见解，以改善PNW沿海社区和美国其他沿海地区的准备。其次，帕卢事件代表了“最坏情况”（地震，海啸，大型内陆泥土流和液化，土壤衰竭吞没了1,400座房屋），同时发生了这次事件，大量人聚集在一个海滩上参加节日。显然，人口稠密的沿海地区由于海啸生成的大型内陆泥土而遭受了巨大破坏。从前的地震中摇晃的强烈地面可能触发了土壤液化和横向扩散。这些组合过程在溪流和回收土地上也很常见，这些土地可​​以在预测的CSZ事件中在PNW海岸相对平坦的地区产生破坏性的泥石流。第三，帕鲁坐在一个狭窄的10公里长的手指状湾尽头的独特地理位置可能会扩大相对较浅海床上的水和波能量的快速移动，从而加剧了海啸对受影响的人和社区的破坏力。在这种类型的海湾上的PNW海岸上有类似的社区。最后，许多PNW沿海社区遭受类似缺乏海啸准备的准备。在CSZ中，直到最近才认识到近场海啸的威胁，因此许多社区的疏散计划基于远场海啸场景，提供了4-6个小时的前提。用当前的地震和海啸警告预测此类事件的困难使得从Palu事件中学习至关重要。此外，对Palu海啸撤离的研究将为其他类似类型的快速发作灾害（例如山洪洪水）提供疏散计划。 该项目使用保护行动决策模型（PADM）作为收集人们对帕鲁地震和海啸行为反应的经验数据的指南。问题包括：有多少人认识到地震摇晃是海啸发作的环境提示？有多少人收到了官员，新闻媒体和同行的警告？人们如何应对威胁？ 该项目使用了以前在美国萨摩亚（2009），基督城（2011），Tohoku（2011），库克海峡（2013）和格拉斯米尔湖（2013）中使用的经过验证的调查程序。收集的数据重点是（1）官员决定发出海啸撤离警告所花费的时间； （2）海啸警告消息来源，频道，消息和警告传播时间； （3）人们的疏散率，准备时间和出发时间； （4）人们的疏散后勤。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的评论标准来评估值得支持的。