An Integrated Social Science and Agent-based Modeling Approach to Improve Life Safety from Near-field Tsunami Hazards

综合社会科学和基于主体的建模方法，以提高近场海啸灾害的生命安全

• 批准号: 1563618
• 负责人: Haizhong Wang
• 金额: $ 39.34万
• 依托单位: Oregon State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-06-01 至 2020-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1563618&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integrated; Social; Science; Agent; based

This project will develop fundamental understanding of how integrated social science and agent-based modeling approaches can improve life safety under threat of near-field tsunami hazards. The targeted hazard scenario is a magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, threatening communities along 1,000 miles of the US Pacific Northwest coastline. This project develops close collaboration with a number of organizations responsible for public safety during the response extreme natural hazards, including the Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Office of Emergency Management, Oregon Parks and Recreation, and Oregon Sea Grant. Social science data from diverse groups will contribute to a growing body of knowledge on evacuation decision-making. A collaboration with the Oregon Museum of Science of Industry (OMSI) will leverage the museum's ongoing activities, including those which reach underrepresented groups. Modeling source code will be shared and distributed.The project integrates the disciplines of sociology with engineering to investigate multiple forms of tsunami information and its potential impact on evacuation decision-making by the general public and the unique professional community responsible for coastal visitor safety. The project objectives are (1) to identify the cognitive and social factors that influence multimodal evacuation decision-making behavior; (2) to utilize an Agent-Based Modeling framework to provide realistic/credible hypothetical scenarios for near-field tsunamis hazards; and (3) to determine the usability/acceptability of social science-informed agent-based modeling for understanding evacuation decision-making. This work will therefore improve understand of how decision-making affects life safety, with broad outreach to diverse audiences both to assess the feasibility of this approach and for purposes of outreach.

该项目将对综合的社会科学和基于代理的建模方法如何改善近场海啸危害的威胁来改善生命安全的基本了解。有针对性的危险场景是卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带的9.0级地震和海啸，威胁着沿美国太平洋西北海岸线1000英里的社区。该项目与在响应极端自然危害期间负责公共安全的许多组织建立了密切的合作，包括俄勒冈州交通运输部，俄勒冈州应急管理办公室，俄勒冈州公园和休闲以及俄勒冈州SEA GRANT。来自不同群体的社会科学数据将有助于越来越多的关于疏散决策的知识。与俄勒冈州工业科学博物馆（OMSI）的合作将利用博物馆正在进行的活动，包括那些涉及代表性不足的团体的活动。该项目将共享和分发建模源代码。将社会学的学科与工程学相结合，以研究多种形式的海啸信息及其对公众对疏散决策的潜在影响以及负责沿海游客安全的独特专业社区。项目目标是（1）确定影响多模式疏散决策行为的认知和社会因素； （2）利用基于代理的建模框架为近场海啸危害提供现实/可信的假设场景； （3）确定基于社会科学的代理商建模的可用性/可接受性，以理解疏散决策。因此，这项工作将改善对决策如何影响生命安全的理解，并通过对不同观众进行广泛的宣传，以评估这种方法的可行性以及出于外展的目的。