Changes to Madden-Julian Oscillation Winds and Convection in a Future Warmer Climate

未来气候变暖时马登-朱利安振荡风和对流的变化

基本信息

批准号：
1841754
负责人：
Eric Maloney
金额：
$ 53.81万
依托单位：
Colorado State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2019-06-01 至 2024-05-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1841754&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Changes Madden Julian Oscillation Winds

项目摘要

The Madden-Julian oscillation is a phenomenon of slowly eastward moving large-scale tropical convection system thousands of miles across over the equatorial Indian Ocean and Pacific. It affects the formation of hurricanes and tropical storms by interacting with disturbances over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is also capable of producing alternating high and low pressure patterns over the north Pacific Ocean and the United States, responsible for heavy rainfall events, droughts, cold air outbreaks, and other extreme weather events that affect lives and property. Such long-distance impacts of the Madden-Julian oscillation provide useful forecast skill for extreme weather over the U.S. up to a few weeks in advance. This project will explore if the Madden-Julian oscillation connections to the United States may potentially weaken or shift geographically in a warmer climate, which would have substantial implications for forecasts and for society. This project will support a graduate student and a postdoctoral researcher. Undergraduate students will also be involved in this research through a summer internship program conducted at Colorado State University. This project will use a set of climate model simulations to analyze how the Madden-Julian oscillation and its connections to the United States may change in a future warmer climate. Idealized models with reduced complexity will be used to identify and understand the underlying mechanisms responsible for these changes. Foci will be how changes in the stratification of the tropical atmosphere, and the position and strength of jet streams affect the ability of the Madden-Julian oscillation to impact weather in mid-latitudes. Whether the impacts of El Nino on United States weather may change in a warmer climate will also be examined.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

Madden-Julian振荡是一种慢慢向东移动的大规模热带对流系统的现象，遍布赤道印度洋和太平洋。它通过与墨西哥湾，加勒比海和热带大西洋的干扰相互作用，影响飓风和热带风暴的形成。 Madden-Julian振荡还能够在北太平洋和美国产生交替的高压模式，负责大雨事件，干旱，冷空气爆发以及其他影响生命和财产的极端天气事件。 Madden-Julian振荡的长途影响为美国的极端天气提供了有用的预测技能，直到提前几周。该项目将探索与美国的Madden-Julian振荡联系是否可能在温暖的气候下可能在地理上削弱或转移，这将对预测和社会产生重大影响。该项目将支持研究生和博士后研究员。本科生还将通过在科罗拉多州立大学进行的暑期实习计划参与这项研究。该项目将使用一组气候模型模拟来分析Madden-Julian振荡及其与美国的联系如何在未来温暖的气候中发生变化。理想化的复杂性降低的模型将用于识别和理解负责这些变化的基本机制。 FOCI将是热带气氛分层的变化以及喷气流的位置和强度会影响Madden-Julian振荡影响中纬度天气的能力。还将检查埃尔尼诺（El Nino）对美国天气的影响是否可能会在温暖的气候下发生变化。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是值得通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准通过评估来支持的。