Collaborative Research: P2C2--High Frequency Hydroclimate Extremes and Synoptic Climate Drivers in Western North America at the End of the Little Ice Age

合作研究：P2C2——小冰河时代末期北美西部高频水文气候极端事件和天气气候驱动因素

基本信息

批准号：
1802024
负责人：
Erika Wise
金额：
$ 23.05万
依托单位：
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-08-01 至 2022-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1802024&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research P2C2 Frequency Hydroclimate

项目摘要

Understanding extreme climate events like floods and droughts, which have major impacts on society and ecosystems, has become particularly important in light of potential future changes in climatic extremes. Paleoclimate data have played a critical role in placing recent hydroclimate extremes within a longer-term context, but biases in paleoclimate proxies remain a major challenge for the reconstruction and interpretation of past climate extremes. This is particularly applicable to the North American West Coast where a limited number of seasonal extreme precipitation events account for a large proportion of annual precipitation totals. This research will integrate historical climatology and dendroclimatology to address pre-instrumental capture of extremes through a focus on the 1800s, a time period including a range of climate extremes that are not represented in the instrumental record. Specifically, the aims of this project are to: (1) extract 19th century historical data from archives and repositories to derive subseasonal precipitation and snow frequency reconstructions; (2) use tree-ring data to assess the ability of existing records to capture hydroclimatic extremes (with a focus on atmospheric river events) and seasonally-specific precipitation on the West Coast; and (3) integrate historical and tree-ring data to create spatial climate surfaces for extreme events in the 1800s and use reanalysis data, gridded paleoclimate reconstruction data, and paleoclimate model output to assess synoptic climate drivers of those extremes.The potential Broader Impacts (B.I.) include improved understanding of extreme climate events at a seasonal level has broad societal implications, as these extremes are costly hazards with implications for agriculture, water supply, power generation, fire, and other sectors of society. The information derived from this research is potentially useful to water managers, climate modelers, and others who are interested in the characterization of past extreme events, including impacts and driving mechanisms, as well as future hydroclimate extremes. Further impacts of this project include: (1) education and training of graduate students in research methods and dissemination, science communication, and educational outreach; (2) involving undergraduates in hands-on research experiences, allowing them to work through the scientific process; (3) contribution of new, spatially explicit climate reconstructions to the NOAA Paleoclimatology repository; and (4) capitalizing on the excitement of our research themes to engage future generations of scientists through K-12 educational outreach activities involving a partnership with the Morehead Planetarium and Science Center.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

鉴于气候极端的未来变化，了解对社会和生态系统产生重大影响的极端气候事件，例如洪水和干旱，对社会和生态系统产生了重大影响。古气候数据在将最近的氢气气候极端置于长期的情况下起着至关重要的作用，但是古气候代理的偏见仍然是重建和解释过去气候极端的重大挑战。这尤其适用于北美西海岸，那里有限的季节性极端降水事件占年度降水量的很大比例。这项研究将通过关注1800年代的重点将历史气候和树突气候学融合，以解决对极端捕获前的捕获，这是一个时期，包括一系列在乐器记录中未代表的气候极端。具体而言，该项目的目的是：（1）从档案和存储库中提取19世纪的历史数据，以得出亚季节降水和降雪频率重建；（2）使用树环数据评估现有记录捕获氢化气候极端的能力（重点是大气河事件）和西海岸的季节性降水量；（3）整合历史和树木环数据以创建1800年代极端事件的空间气候表面，并使用重新分析数据，网格栅格的古气候重建数据和古气候模型的输出来评估这些极端的概要气候驱动因素，这些极端的范围更广泛。用于农业，供水，发电，火和社会其他部门。从这项研究中得出的信息可能对水管理人员，气候建模者以及对过去极端事件的表征感兴趣的其他人，包括影响和驾驶机制以及未来的氢气气候极端。该项目的进一步影响包括：（1）研究和培训研究生在研究方法和传播，科学传播和教育外展方面的教育；（2）让大学生参与动手研究经验，使他们能够通过科学过程；（3）新的，空间上明确的气候重建对NOAA古气候存储库的贡献；（4）通过K-12教育外展活动吸引我们的研究主题的兴奋，涉及与莫尔黑德天文馆和科学中心合作的教育外展活动。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并认为通过基金会的知识分子和宽广的影响，通过评估来审查Criteria。