Collaborative Research: P2C2--Multi-Site Paleo-Reconstruction of Missouri River Streamflows from Tree Ring Data

合作研究：P2C2——根据树木年轮数据重建密苏里河水流的多地点古重建

• 批准号: 1403957
• 负责人: Erika Wise
• 金额: $ 14.92万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-07-01 至 2018-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1403957&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Multi; Site

Modern records of gaged flow for major rivers are limited to the last 120 years, at most. These records, which reflect average annual flows as well as periods of drought, have been used to allocate water resources and plan for future uses. Tree-ring based reconstructions of streamflow have been used to extend records back in time. The most well-known of these, for the Colorado River, showed that the period of flow used to allocate the basin's water supplies in the 1920s was one of the wettest period of flow in the past five centuries. Reconstructions of flow for other basins, such as the Sacramento River, have shown that drought much longer than any in the gage records have occurred over past centuries. This research will use centuries-long tree ring records to reconstruct streamflow for the Missouri River Basin for gages from the headwaters to the confluence with the Mississippi River. This will be done using innovative statistical techniques based on Bayesian methodologies. To date, The Missouri River Basin is the only major river headwaters in the western US for which reconstructions from tree rings have not been generated. This knowledge gap is critical given that the region is facing an array of water resources issues that are challenged by hydrologic variability-- both floods and droughts-- over just the past decades. Providing a longer context for understanding past variability of flow and climatic controls on it, particularly at decadal and longer time scales, is critical for anticipating and managing water supplies in the future. The Missouri River system is the life-blood of the American Midwest. The research team will collaborate with the US Army Corps of Engineers Institute of Water Resources and their Upper Missouri Basin Offices to develop and test scenarios of past tree-ring reconstructed river discharge that can be used for different aspects of the Corps' operations on the river system, leading to better multi-stakeholder discussions on how best to manage climate induced risk in the region. This direct engagement will enhance the application of the research products, as well as provide guidance for their design. To engage Montana water users in the headwaters region of the Missouri River Basin, the research team will convene a workshop for local, state, tribal, and national management agency personnel with the goal to build capacity to incorporate scientific information into planning and management. The research team will also partner with a new NSF EPSCoR project with a focus on Montana's vulnerability to climate change to produce a K-12 science module on water resources.

主要河流的现代记录最多仅限于过去120年。 这些记录反映了平均年度流量以及干旱时期，已被用来分配水资源并计划以后的用途。 基于树环的水流重建已被用来及时扩展记录。 对于科罗拉多河而言，其中最著名的是，在1920年代分配流域供水的流动周期是过去五个世纪中最潮湿的流动期之一。 其他盆地（例如萨克拉曼多河）的流量重建表明，在过去几个世纪以来，干旱比量规记录中发生的任何时间都长得多。 这项研究将使用数百年的树环记录来重建密苏里河盆地的水流，用于从源头到与密西西比河汇合处的量具。这将使用基于贝叶斯方法的创新统计技术来完成。迄今为止，密苏里河盆地是美国西部唯一尚未产生树环的重建的主要河流源头。鉴于该地区面临着一系列水资源问题，这些问题在过去的几十年中都面临着由水文变异性（包括洪水和干旱）挑战的一系列水资源问题。提供较长的背景，以了解其流动和气候控制的过去变异性，尤其是在十年和更长的时间尺度上，对于未来预期和管理供水至关重要。 密苏里河系统是美国中西部的生命。研究团队将与美国陆军工程兵团水资源研究所及其上密苏里盆地办公室合作，开发和测试过去的树木环重建的河流排放的场景，该场景可用于兵团在河流系统上的不同方面，从而导致更好地讨论如何最好地管理该地区的气候风险。这种直接参与将增强研究产品的应用，并为其设计提供指导。为了吸引密苏里河流域源泉地区的蒙大拿州用水用户，研究小组将召集本地，州，部落和国家管理机构人员的研讨会，目的是建立能力，以将科学信息纳入计划和管理。研究团队还将与一个新的NSF EPSCOR项目合作，重点是蒙大拿州易受气候变化的脆弱性，以生产水资源上的K-12科学模块。