Science Policy Research Report: The Use of Research Portfolios in Science Policy

科学政策研究报告：研究组合在科学政策中的运用

• 批准号: 1734829
• 负责人: Nicholas Vonortas
• 金额: $ 4.97万
• 依托单位: George Washington University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-06-15 至 2018-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1734829&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Science; Policy; Research; Report; Use

Funding organizations have been very successful at selecting individual projects under the guidance of peer review. However, the growth in size and scope of R&D across new thematic, sectoral and geographic areas has made it increasingly difficult to develop strategic thinking about the directions and de facto priorities of R&D funding. Research portfolio approaches take an R&D landscape perspective of project management to facilitate strategic thinking. Looking at the ensemble of funded projects, one may wonder if some type of relevant research is underfunded, or whether there is room for improving efficiency of the investments taking into consideration the high uncertainties of research. This project complements current management focus on R&D program quality with systemic considerations on project risk, synergies and responsiveness to societal needs. It provides tools to R&D program managers/decision makers to consider aggregate R&D portfolios. The policy report will interpret analytical methods for better handling project risk and synergies at the program level. It will also explain methods to analyze the alignment between R&D program missions and the expected societal outcomes of program portfolio.This science policy report is based on the notion that an R&D portfolio is more than the sum of the projects contained in the portfolio. The reason is that the risks of failure and project learning are not additive but multiplicative in complex ways: by considering the interactions among projects and economies of scale and scope, risks can be reduced and overall learning enhanced. Three specific approximations are shown for portfolio management. First, methods for single-objective portfolios are developed for cases such as energy consumption in an industry or within the logic of public R&D. These methods better handle technical and market uncertainty, as well as account for all stop-go decisions in the lifetime of a research project. They are based on the literature using decision trees and real options methods. Second, the project develops methods for R&D programs that have multiple goals such as citizen wellbeing, the environment, and security. In such cases, the project analyses multicriteria methods or Data Envelopment Analysis. Third, the project introduces data and visualization techniques developed in the past few years that facilitate the identification of knowledge gaps and help in making more transparent the current focus of R&D investment.

在同行评审的指导下，资金组织在选择单个项目方面非常成功。但是，在新的主题，部门和地理领域的研发规模和范围的增长使得对R＆D资金的方向和事实上的优先事实进行战略思考变得越来越困难。研究组合方法采用项目管理的研发景观观点，以促进战略思维。从资金项目的合奏中看，人们可能会怀疑某种类型的相关研究是否资金不足，或者考虑到高度不确定性的研究，是否有提高投资效率的空间。该项目将当前的管理重点放在研发计划质量上，并有系统的考虑因素对项目风险，协同作用和对社会需求的响应能力。它为研发计划经理/决策者提供了工具，以考虑聚合研发投资组合。该政策报告将解释分析方法，以更好地处理计划级别的项目风险和协同作用。它还将解释方法来分析研发计划任务与计划投资组合的预期社会成果之间的一致性。本科学政策报告基于这样的观点：R＆D投资组合大于投资组合中包含的项目的总和。原因是失败和项目学习的风险不是加性的，而是复杂的方式：通过考虑规模和范围的项目和经济经济之间的相互作用，可以降低风险并增强整体学习。 显示了用于投资组合管理的三个特定近似值。首先，针对行业中的能源消耗或公共研发逻辑之类的案例开发了单瞄准投资组合的方法。这些方法可以更好地处理技术和市场不确定性，并说明研究项目一生中的所有停止决策。它们基于使用决策树和实际选项方法的文献。其次，该项目为具有多个目标的研发计划开发方法，例如公民福祉，环境和安全。在这种情况下，该项目分析了多准则方法或数据包络分析。第三，该项目介绍了过去几年中开发的数据和可视化技术，以促进知识差距的识别，并有助于使更透明的研发投资重点更加透明。