Collaborative Research: Present and Projected Future Forcings on Antarctic Peninsula Glaciers and Ice Shelves using the Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Model

合作研究：使用天气预报和研究 (WRF) 模型对南极半岛冰川和冰架的当前和预测的未来强迫

• 批准号: 1543445
• 负责人: Jing Zhang
• 金额: $ 33.06万
• 依托单位: North Carolina Agricultural & Technical State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-04-01 至 2022-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1543445&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Present; Projected; Future; Collaborative; Research; Present; Projected; Future

Hock/1543432Over the last half century the Antarctic Peninsula has been among the most rapidly warming regions in the world. This has led to increased glacier melt, widespread glacier retreat, ice-shelf collapses, and glacier speed-ups. Many of these changes are driven by changing precipitation and increased melt due to warmer air temperatures. This project will use a combination of two models - a regional atmospheric model and a model of processes at the glacier surface - to simulate future changes in temperature and snowfall, and the resulting changes in glacier mass. The combination of models will be tested against the observational record (since 1979 when satellite observations became available), to verify that it can reproduce observed change, and then run to the year 2100. Results will provide better estimates of the impacts of future climate changes over the Antarctic Pensinsula and the expected glacier mass changes driven by the evolving climate. The project will use the large changes observed on the Peninsula to validate a model framework suitable for understanding the impact of these changes on the glaciers and ice shelves there, with the goal of developing optimally constrained future climate and surface mass change scenarios for the region. The framework will provide both a coherent picture of the impacts of past changes on the region's ice cover, and also the best available constraints on forcings that will determine ice mass loss from this region going forward under a standard scenario. The Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Model will be used over the domain of the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring islands to quantify trends in spatio-temporal patterns of mass change with a focus on surface melt. The WRF model will be enhanced to account for the specific conditions of glacier surfaces, and the modified model will be used to simulate climate conditions and resulting surface mass budgets and melt over the period 1979-2100. Tying modeled past climate changes to the surface and satellite-based observational record will provide a foundation for interpreting projected future change. Results will be validated using available weather station observations, surface mass-balance data, and satellite-derived records of melt. The activity will foster partnerships through collaboration with colleagues in Spain, Germany and The Netherlands and will support an early-career postdoctoral researcher and two graduate students, introduce undergraduate and high-school students to original research and provide training of students through inclusion of data and results in course curriculums.

Hock/1543432上半个世纪南极半岛一直是世界上最快速变暖的地区之一。这导致冰川融化，广泛的冰川静修，冰架倒塌和冰川加速。这些变化中的许多变化是由于降水量变化而驱动的，并且由于空气温度升高而导致的熔体增加。该项目将结合两个模型（一个区域大气模型和冰川表面的过程模型），以模拟未来的温度和降雪变化，以及冰川质量的变化。模型的组合将针对观察性记录进行测试（自1979年以来，卫星观测可用），以验证它可以重现观察到的变化，然后延伸至2100年。结果将更好地估计未来气候变化对南极彭西拉的影响以及预期的冰川质量变化以及预期的冰川质量变化驱动的气候驱动的气候驱动。该项目将使用在半岛上观察到的大型变化来验证一个模型框架，以了解这些变化对冰川和冰架的影响，目的是为该地区开发最佳限制的未来气候和表面质量变化方案。该框架将既可以提供过去变化对该地区冰盖的影响的连贯图片，也是对强迫的最佳可用约束，这将决定在标准方案下该地区的冰质量损失。 天气预报和研究（WRF）模型将在南极半岛和邻近岛屿的域上使用，以量化质量变化时空模式的趋势，重点是表面熔体。 WRF模型将得到增强以说明冰川表面的特定条件，并且修改模型将用于模拟气候条件和结果表面质量预算，并在1979 - 2100年期间融化。将过去的气候变化与表面和基于卫星的观察记录进行建模将为解释预期的未来变化提供基础。结果将使用可用的气象站观测值，表面质量平衡数据和卫星衍生的熔体记录来验证结果。 这项活动将通过与西班牙，德国和荷兰的同事合作来促进伙伴关系，并将支持早期职业博士后研究员和两名研究生，介绍本科生和高中生，以通过课程和课程纳入数据和成绩来对学生进行原创研究，并为学生提供培训。