Collaborative Research: Determining Factors Affecting Distribution and Population Variability of the Ice-obligate Weddell Seal

合作研究：确定影响冰系威德尔海豹分布和种群变异的因素

• 批准号: 1543230
• 负责人: David Ainley
• 金额: $ 9.23万
• 依托单位: H.T. Harvey & Associates
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-03-15 至 2019-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1543230&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Determining; Factors; Affecting

The Weddell seal is the southern-most mammal in the world, having a circumpolar distribution around Antarctica; the McMurdo Sound population in Antarctica is one of the best-studied mammal populations on earth. However, despite this, an understanding of how populations around the continent will fare under climate change is poorly understood. A complicating matter is the potential effects of a commercial enterprise in the Antarctic: a fishery targeting toothfish, which are important prey for Weddell seals. Although the species is easily detected and counted during the breeding season, no reliable estimates of continent-wide Weddell seal numbers exist, due to the logistic difficulties of surveying vast regions of Antarctica. Large-scale estimates are needed to understand how seal populations are responding to the fishery and climate change, because these drivers of change operate at scales larger than any single population, and may affect seals differently in different regions of the continent. We will take advantage of the ease of detectability of darkly colored seals when they the on ice to develop estimates of abundance from satellite images. This project will generate baseline data on the global distribution and abundance of Weddell seals around the Antarctic and will link environmental variables to population changes to better understand how the species will fare as their sea ice habitat continues to change. These results will help disentangle the effects of climate change and fishery operations, results that are necessary for appropriate international policy regarding fishery catch limits, impacts on the environment, and the value of marine protected areas. The project will also further the NSF goals of training new generations of scientists and of making scientific discoveries available to the general public. It will engage "arm-chair" scientists of all ages through connections with several non-governmental organizations and the general public. Anyone with access to the internet, including people who are physically unable to participate in field research directly, can participate in this project while simultaneously learning about multiple aspects of polar ecology through the project's interactive website. Specifically, this research project will: 1) Quantify the distribution of Weddell seals around Antarctica and 2) Determine the impact of environmental variables (such as fast ice extent, ocean productivity, bathymetry) on habitat suitability and occupancy. To do this, the project will crowd-source counting of seals on high-resolution satellite images via a commercial citizen science platform. Variation in seal around the continent will then be related to habitat variables through generalized linear models. Specific variables, such as fast ice extent will be tested to determine their influence on population variability through both space and time. The project includes a rigorous plan for ensuring quality control in the dataset including ground truth data from other, localized projects concurrently funded by the National Science Foundation's Antarctic Science Program.

Weddell Seal是世界上最南部的哺乳动物，在南极洲周围有极度分布。南极洲的McMurdo声音种群是地球上研究最良好的哺乳动物人群之一。 然而，尽管如此，对在气候变化下如何票房的人口如何了解到很少了解。一个复杂的问题是商业企业在南极的潜在影响：一种针对牙鱼的渔业，这对于韦德尔海豹来说是重要的猎物。尽管在繁殖季节很容易检测和计数该物种，但由于对南极地区广阔地区的逻辑困难，尚无对大陆范围内Weddell密封号码的可靠估计。需要进行大规模的估计来了解密封种群如何应对渔业和气候变化，因为这些变化的驱动因素以比任何单一人群都大的尺度运行，并且在非洲大陆的不同地区可能会影响密封群。当它们在冰上产生卫星图像的丰度估计时，我们将利用黑色密封件的可检测性。该项目将生成有关南极周围韦德尔密封的全球分布和丰富性的基线数据，并将环境变量与人口变化联系起来，以更好地了解该物种在其海冰栖息地继续变化的情况下如何出现。这些结果将有助于消除气候变化和渔业行动的影响，这是适当的国际捕捞界限，对环境的影响以及海洋保护区的价值所必需的结果。该项目还将进一步培训新一代科学家的目标，并为公众提供科学发现。它将通过与几个非政府组织和公众的联系来吸引所有年龄段的“手臂椅子”科学家。任何有访问互联网的人，包括身体上无法直接参与现场研究的人，可以通过该项目的交互式网站同时学习Polar Ecology的多个方面。 具体而言，该研究项目将：1）量化南极周围的Weddell密封的分布，2）确定环境变量（例如快速冰范围，海洋生产力，测深量计）对栖息地适合性和占用率的影响。为此，该项目将通过商业公民科学平台上的高分辨率卫星图像对密封群进行众包核对。然后，大陆周围密封的变化将通过广义线性模型与栖息地变量有关。将测试特定变量，例如快速冰范围，以确定其对人群变异性通过空间和时间的影响。该项目包括一个严格的计划，以确保数据集中的质量控制，包括来自国家科学基金会南极科学计划同时资助的其他本地化项目的地面真相数据。