Collaborative Research: Determining Factors Affecting Distribution and Population Variability of the Ice-obligate Weddell Seal

合作研究：确定影响冰系威德尔海豹分布和种群变异的因素

• 批准号: 1543230
• 负责人: David Ainley
• 金额: $ 9.23万
• 依托单位: H.T. Harvey & Associates
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-03-15 至 2019-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1543230&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Determining; Factors; Affecting

The Weddell seal is the southern-most mammal in the world, having a circumpolar distribution around Antarctica; the McMurdo Sound population in Antarctica is one of the best-studied mammal populations on earth. However, despite this, an understanding of how populations around the continent will fare under climate change is poorly understood. A complicating matter is the potential effects of a commercial enterprise in the Antarctic: a fishery targeting toothfish, which are important prey for Weddell seals. Although the species is easily detected and counted during the breeding season, no reliable estimates of continent-wide Weddell seal numbers exist, due to the logistic difficulties of surveying vast regions of Antarctica. Large-scale estimates are needed to understand how seal populations are responding to the fishery and climate change, because these drivers of change operate at scales larger than any single population, and may affect seals differently in different regions of the continent. We will take advantage of the ease of detectability of darkly colored seals when they the on ice to develop estimates of abundance from satellite images. This project will generate baseline data on the global distribution and abundance of Weddell seals around the Antarctic and will link environmental variables to population changes to better understand how the species will fare as their sea ice habitat continues to change. These results will help disentangle the effects of climate change and fishery operations, results that are necessary for appropriate international policy regarding fishery catch limits, impacts on the environment, and the value of marine protected areas. The project will also further the NSF goals of training new generations of scientists and of making scientific discoveries available to the general public. It will engage "arm-chair" scientists of all ages through connections with several non-governmental organizations and the general public. Anyone with access to the internet, including people who are physically unable to participate in field research directly, can participate in this project while simultaneously learning about multiple aspects of polar ecology through the project's interactive website. Specifically, this research project will: 1) Quantify the distribution of Weddell seals around Antarctica and 2) Determine the impact of environmental variables (such as fast ice extent, ocean productivity, bathymetry) on habitat suitability and occupancy. To do this, the project will crowd-source counting of seals on high-resolution satellite images via a commercial citizen science platform. Variation in seal around the continent will then be related to habitat variables through generalized linear models. Specific variables, such as fast ice extent will be tested to determine their influence on population variability through both space and time. The project includes a rigorous plan for ensuring quality control in the dataset including ground truth data from other, localized projects concurrently funded by the National Science Foundation's Antarctic Science Program.

威德尔海豹是世界上最南端的哺乳动物，环极地分布在南极洲周围。南极洲的麦克默多海峡种群是地球上研究最深入的哺乳动物种群之一。 然而，尽管如此，人们对非洲大陆各地人口在气候变化下将如何生活的了解却知之甚少。一个复杂的问题是南极商业企业的潜在影响：以齿鱼为目标的渔业，齿鱼是威德尔海豹的重要猎物。尽管该物种在繁殖季节很容易被发现和计数，但由于调查南极洲广大地区的后勤困难，对整个大陆威德尔海豹的数量没有可靠的估计。需要进行大规模估计，以了解海豹种群如何应对渔业和气候变化，因为这些变化驱动因素的运作规模比任何单一种群都大，并且可能对非洲大陆不同地区的海豹产生不同的影响。我们将利用深色海豹在冰上时易于检测的优势，根据卫星图像估算丰度。该项目将生成有关南极周围威德尔海豹的全球分布和数量的基线数据，并将环境变量与种群变化联系起来，以更好地了解该物种在海冰栖息地持续变化时将如何生存。这些结果将有助于理清气候变化和渔业作业的影响，这些结果对于制定有关渔业捕捞限制、对环境的影响和海洋保护区价值的适当国际政策是必要的。该项目还将进一步推进国家科学基金会培养新一代科学家和向公众提供科学发现的目标。它将通过与一些非政府组织和公众的联系，吸引各个年龄段的“纸上谈兵”科学家。任何能够上网的人，包括身体上无法直接参与实地研究的人，都可以参与该项目，同时通过该项目的互动网站了解极地生态的多个方面。 具体来说，该研究项目将：1）量化南极洲周围威德尔海豹的分布，2）确定环境变量（例如固定冰范围、海洋生产力、测深）对栖息地适宜性和占用率的影响。为此，该项目将通过商业公民科学平台对高分辨率卫星图像上的海豹进行众包计数。然后，大陆周围海豹的变化将通过广义线性模型与栖息地变量相关联。将测试特定变量，例如固定冰范围，以确定它们在空间和时间上对种群变异的影响。该项目包括一个严格的计划，以确保数据集的质量控制，包括来自美国国家科学基金会南极科学计划同时资助的其他本地化项目的地面实况数据。