Learning Failure Propagation Patterns in Interdependent Network From Observed Post-Disaster Disruptions

从观察到的灾后中断中学习相互依赖网络中的故障传播模式

• 批准号: 1536340
• 负责人: Cynthia Chen
• 金额: $ 28.2万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-09-01 至 2020-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1536340&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Learning; Failure; Propagation; Patterns; Interdependent

This project is to develop models and tools to uncover the failure cascading process, or how failures of an initial, small set of nodes propagate through interdependent networks as it happened in the real world. Recent disasters such as blackouts in the United States and Canada and the 2012 Hurricane Sandy have repeatedly shown the effects on society resulting from cascading failures between interdependent critical infrastructures. This research addresses a fundamental challenge in building toward our next-generation resilient critical infrastructures: what kinds of interdependencies within and across systems will facilitate or mitigate a potential failure cascading process. This project will also provide a critical opportunity to develop a methodological class that combines knowledge from multiple fields. The modules developed in the course will be widely disseminated through the project website. Outreach activities will focus on under-represented minority students, as well as an advisory team comprising practitioners in disaster/emergency response. This project will utilize novel geostatistical and statistical approaches that will allow the PIs to estimate disaster disruptions at a fine spatial scale and identify a sequence of events replicating the failure propagation process using empirical data collected before and after a disaster. It will also use independent datasets, reports and informal qualitative interviews to statistically validate and contextualize the numerical model results. This project builds on a solid intellectual and methodological foundation resulting from our previous studies as well as the most recent developments in advanced statistics, general network science, and infrastructure interdependency. The research has the potential to bring transformative changes across multiple fields.

该项目是为了开发模型和工具来揭示故障级联过程，或者是如何通过相互依存的网络传播的初始小节点的失败如何在现实世界中传播。 最近的灾难，例如美国和加拿大的停电以及2012年的桑迪飓风，反复表明，由于相互依存的关键基础设施之间的级联失败而对社会产生影响。 这项研究针对建立下一代弹性关键基础设施的基本挑战：跨系统内部和跨系统内部的哪些相互依存关系将有助于或减轻潜在的失败级联过程。该项目还将提供一个关键的机会，以开发一种方法论，该方法可以结合来自多个领域的知识。 课程中开发的模块将通过项目网站广泛传播。外展活动将集中于代表性不足的少数族裔学生，以及由灾难/应急响应中的从业者组成的咨询团队。该项目将利用新颖的地统计学和统计方法，这些方法将使PI可以以良好的空间规模估算灾难中断，并使用在灾难之前和之后收集的经验数据来确定复制失败传播过程的一系列事件。它还将使用独立的数据集，报告和非正式的定性访谈来统计验证和背景化数值模型结果。该项目基于我们以前的研究以及高级统计，通用网络科学和基础架构相互依存的最新发展而产生的坚实的智力和方法论基础。这项研究有可能在多个领域带来变革性变化。