OCE-PRF Track 1 (Broadening Participation): The influence of predator-prey interactions on climate-induced range shifts in marine communities

OCE-PRF 第 1 轨道（扩大参与）：捕食者-猎物相互作用对气候引起的海洋群落范围变化的影响

基本信息

批准号：
1521565
负责人：
金额：
$ 17.4万
依托单位：
Selden, Rebecca
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Fellowship Award
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2015-09-01 至 2017-09-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1521565&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
OCE PRF Track Broadening Participation

项目摘要

Trawl surveys conducted over the last 40 years have provided evidence that warming ocean temperatures have driven widespread shifts in the distribution of marine species in the coastal United States, with some species shifting north by more than 200 km. However, not all species have responded at the same rate to these changes in ocean temperatures. As a result, warming could alter key species interactions (such as competition or predation) that could mediate the capacity for these populations to respond to future climate change as well as impact the goods and services provided to humans by these ecosystems, including commercial and recreational fisheries. In this research project, the fellow will examine the influence of predator-prey interactions on regional species shifts related to changes in ocean temperatures. In addition, the fellow will use the results of the research to develop educational materials and an interactive app for the Rutgers Summer Science Program. The activities the fellow will develop for the program have the potential to contribute directly to broadening the participation of under-represented groups in ocean sciences. Most current models predicting range shifts in response to climate change consider each species in isolation. However, predator-prey interactions have the potential to modify the capacity for species to respond to changes in climate. Indeed, invasions by exotic species have been found to be more rapid where populations are released from natural enemies (e.g. ?enemy release?) and are slowed by the presence of predators that resist their establishment (e.g. ?biotic resistance?). This research will demonstrate the degree to which these key concepts from invasion biology apply to climate-induced range shifts and need to be considered when projecting future range shifts. The fellow will utilize a 45-year dataset on predator and prey distributions and ocean temperatures on the U.S. Northeast Shelf. The role of enemy release and biotic resistance will be tested by examining the effect of predator abundance and predator-prey spatial overlap on the rate at which prey populations respond to shifting climates. Fisheries will be considered as human predators. In addition, the fellow will test the direct effect of warming on the overlap between predator and prey. Using these relationships from historical data, range shifts will be projected for future climate scenarios, with and without changes in predator abundance that might result due to fishing. Improving our predictions of range shifts will be critical to forecasting how marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and fisheries will be affected by climate change.

过去 40 年进行的拖网调查提供的证据表明，海洋温度升高导致美国沿海海洋物种分布发生广泛变化，其中一些物种向北移动了 200 多公里。然而，并非所有物种都以相同的速度对海洋温度的变化做出反应。因此，变暖可能会改变关键物种的相互作用（例如竞争或捕食），从而影响这些种群应对未来气候变化的能力，并影响这些生态系统向人类提供的商品和服务，包括商业和娱乐渔业。在这个研究项目中，该研究员将研究捕食者与猎物之间的相互作用对与海洋温度变化相关的区域物种变化的影响。此外，该研究员还将利用研究结果为罗格斯大学夏季科学项目开发教育材料和交互式应用程序。该研究员将为该计划开展的活动有可能直接有助于扩大海洋科学领域代表性不足的群体的参与。当前大多数预测气候变化引起的范围变化的模型都孤立地考虑了每个物种。然而，捕食者与被捕食者的相互作用有可能改变物种应对气候变化的能力。事实上，当种群被天敌释放（例如“天敌释放”）时，外来物种的入侵速度会更快，而抵抗其建立的捕食者的存在（例如“生物抗性”）会减慢外来物种的入侵速度。这项研究将证明入侵生物学的这些关键概念在多大程度上适用于气候引起的范围变化，并且在预测未来范围变化时需要考虑。该研究员将利用 45 年的美国东北大陆架捕食者和猎物分布以及海洋温度数据集。通过研究捕食者丰度和捕食者-被捕食者空间重叠对被捕食者种群对气候变化的反应速度的影响，将测试天敌释放和生物抗性的作用。渔业将被视为人类的掠食者。此外，研究人员还将测试变暖对捕食者和猎物之间重叠的直接影响。利用历史数据中的这些关系，可以预测未来气候情景的范围变化，无论是否因捕捞可能导致捕食者丰度发生变化。改进我们对范围变化的预测对于预测海洋生物多样性、生态系统功能和渔业将如何受到气候变化的影响至关重要。