P2C2: Collaborative Research: Past Ocean-Atmosphere Variability from Spatiotemporal Patterns of North Atlantic Climate During the Common Era

P2C2：合作研究：公元纪元北大西洋气候时空模式的过去海洋-大气变化

• 批准号: 1501856
• 负责人: Kevin Anchukaitis
• 金额: $ 9.35万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-07-01 至 2016-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1501856&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Collaborative; Research; Past; Ocean

The climate of the North Atlantic profoundly impacts human populations and ecosystems in adjacent North America and Europe. It is anticipated that this project will help improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal- and multi-decadal scale climate variability and its spatiotemporal patterns for the North Atlantic sector for modeling and predictive purposes. An enhanced understanding of internal climate system variability at this time scale is critical for decadal-scale prediction, as well as robust detection and attribution of the anthropogenic component of regional and global temperature trends. This award will support early research experiences for students through an ongoing student internship program at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and co-operative and Guest student programs at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). The researchers will utilize the newest version of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA, representing Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) and an updated and fully compatible version of the North Atlantic Drought Atlas (NADA) in analyses designed to identify coupled modes of summer hydro-climate variability between continents on opposite sides of the North Atlantic Basin. This will be accomplished using multivariate tools including singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify simple time domain coupled modes. The existence of band-limited phase-coherent modes will also be investigated using the Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency domain technique. The research team seeks to identify the likely causes of the identified coupled modes in the drought atlases by comparing the projection coefficients of those modes against fields of climate data covering the North Atlantic Basin and for more extensive global regions (e.g., sea-level pressure or SLP, sea surface temperature or SST). The research team will project the identified forcings back to medieval times using the extended records of summer hydro-climate provided by the OWDA and NADA to produce first-order estimates of how the identified climate forcings have varied and changed over the past millennium; andFurthermore, the researchers will compare the millennium-length climate forcing projections of the OWDA/NADA coupled modes against relevant climate fields and their characteristic modes of variability from the suite of CMIP3/CMIP5 coupled climate model runs to determine the degree to which data and models agree.

北大西洋的气候深刻地影响着邻近的北美和欧洲的人口和生态系统。预计该项目将有助于提高对北大西洋地区十年和多十年尺度气候变化的性质和原因及其时空模式的了解，以进行建模和预测。加强对这一时间尺度的内部气候系统变化的了解对于十年尺度的预测以及区域和全球温度趋势的人为成分的稳健检测和归因至关重要。该奖项将通过拉蒙特·多尔蒂地球观测站正在进行的学生实习项目以及伍兹霍尔海洋研究所 (WHOI) 的合作和客座学生项目来支持学生的早期研究经验。 研究人员将利用最新版本的旧世界干旱地图集（OWDA，代表欧洲、北非和中东）和更新且完全兼容的北大西洋干旱地图集（NADA）版本进行旨在识别耦合模式的分析北大西洋盆地两侧大陆之间夏季水文气候变化的研究。这将使用多元工具来完成，包括奇异值分解（SVD）来识别简单的时域耦合模式。还将使用奇异值分解多锥法 (MTM-SVD)（一种频域技术）来研究带限相位相干模式的存在。研究小组试图通过将这些模式的投影系数与覆盖北大西洋盆地和更广泛的全球区域的气候数据字段（例如海平面压力或SLP、海面温度或 SST）。 研究小组将利用 OWDA 和 NADA 提供的夏季水文气候的扩展记录，将已确定的强迫追溯到中世纪时期，以对已确定的气候强迫在过去千年中如何变化和变化进行一阶估计；此外，研究人员将比较 OWDA/NADA 耦合模式的千年气候强迫预测与 CMIP3/CMIP5 耦合气候模型运行套件中的相关气候场及其变率特征模式，以确定数据和模型的程度同意。

项目成果

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

公元纪元和人类世的特大干旱

• DOI: 10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1
• 发表时间: 2022-10-04
• 期刊: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
• 影响因子: 42.1
• 作者: B. Cook;J. Smerdon;E. Cook;A. P. Williams;K. Anchukaitis;J. Mankin;K. Allen;L. Andreu‐Hayles;T. Ault;S. Belmecheri;S. Coats;Bethany L Coulthard;Boniface O Fosu;P. Grierson;D. Griffin;D. A. Herrera;M. Ionita;F. Lehner;C. Lel;K. Marvel;M. Morales;V. Mishra;J. Ngoma;Hung T. T. Nguyen;Alison O’Donnell;J. Palmer;M. Rao;M. Rodriguez‐Caton;R. Seager;D. Stahle;S. Stevenson;U. Thapa;A. Varuolo;E. Wise
• 通讯作者: E. Wise