Rainfall variability, extreme events, and vulnerability in heterogeneous social and environmental systems

异质社会和环境系统中的降雨变化、极端事件和脆弱性

• 批准号: 2049657
• 负责人: Kevin Anchukaitis
• 金额: $ 39.66万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-06-01 至 2024-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2049657&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Rainfall; variability; extreme; events; vulnerability

This project investigates how farmers use observations and their perceptions of rainfall variability to inform their agricultural decisions. This lack of consensus between weather measurements and people’s local perceptions of changing rainfall patterns can result in farmers making inadequate choices about strategic short- and long-term crop selection strategies. These choices can endanger livelihoods and well-being. This project advances knowledge about differences between measurements and perceptions of rainfall trends and how farmers decide to act on this uncertain environmental information. From this information this research will develop meaningful rainfall metrics in direct collaboration with farmers that can be used to reduce their vulnerability and enhance local adaptation strategies in anticipation of future droughts. Large gaps exist in knowledge of where changes in rainfall variability and extremes are occurring, when and how these affect individual farmers and their agricultural decisions, and if these are currently represented in instrumental datasets and by local climate services organizations. This project quantifies recent trends in a range of different daily rainfall datasets and deploys new weather stations to validate them in complex terrain. Local perceptions and knowledge of past and present precipitation variability are assessed using a set of surveys, focus groups, and interviews in agricultural communities. This project will determine how local organizations integrate these different and possibly disparate knowledge systems as part of their attempts to help farmers become more resilient to rainfall variability. This project expands knowledge of the cognitive frameworks that farmers use to understand and act on their own observations of environmental phenomena in combination with the information provided to them by other institutions and organizations. This project generates knowledge necessary to improve agricultural decision-making, reduce vulnerability, and build adaptive capacity.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该项目调查农民如何利用观测结果和他们对降雨变化的看法来为他们的农业决策提供信息。天气测量和人们对降雨模式变化的当地看法之间缺乏共识，可能导致农民对战略性短期和长期作物做出不充分的选择。这些选择可能会危及生计和福祉，该项目增进了人们对降雨趋势的测量和感知之间的差异以及农民如何决定根据这些不确定的环境信息采取行动的知识，该研究将直接开发有意义的降雨指标。与农民的合作可用于减少他们的脆弱性和加强地方适应战略，以预测未来的干旱，但对于降雨变化和极端情况发生在哪里、这些变化何时以及如何影响个体农民及其农业决策以及这些变化是否在工具数据集中和当地得到体现等方面的知识存在巨大差距。该项目量化了一系列不同的每日降雨数据集的最新趋势，并部署了新的气象站，以通过一系列调查、焦点小组、评估当地对过去和当前降水变化的看法和知识来验证它们。该项目将确定如何进行。当地组织将这些不同且可能不同的知识系统整合起来，作为帮助农民增强对降雨变化的抵御能力的努力的一部分。该项目扩展了农民用来理解环境现象并结合自己对环境现象的观察采取行动的知识。该项目产生了改善农业决策、减少脆弱性和建立适应能力所需的知识。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识进行评估，被认为值得支持。优点和更广泛的影响审查标准。