Towards a data-based and physics-based model of interseismic and seismic behavior of Main Himalayan Thrust

建立基于数据和物理的喜马拉雅主冲断层震间和地震行为模型

• 批准号: 1345136
• 负责人: Jean-Philippe Avouac
• 金额: $ 48万
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-03-01 至 2017-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1345136&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Towards; data; based; physics; model

The Himalaya stands out as the major threat with respect to seismic hazard in central Asia where it puts at risk the dense population and economies of several countries. The project will contribute important information regarding seismic activity in that area and, more generally, will advance methods regarding the use of geodetic measurements in seismic hazard studies.Recent and historical earthquakes in the Himalaya fall way short of balancing the rate at which interseismic strain is currently accumulating in the Himalaya. Thus we have a very incomplete view of how interseismic strain is released by transient seismic, and possibly, aseismic slip on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault. The long term objective of this project is the development of a dynamic model and the acquisition of appropriate data to validate and calibrate the model that will allow assessing the full range of possible earthquake scenarios in the Himalaya and their probability of occurrence. To achieve that goal we propose (1) to keep on monitoring and improve the modeling of interseismic coupling on the MHT, (2) use dynamic modeling to evaluate the fault frictional properties needed to account for the observed pattern of interseismic coupling, the sensitivity of seismicity to secular and seasonal stress build up an (3) use dynamic models to test how the statistics of small earthquakes triggered by stress build up at downdip edge of the locked portion of the MHT can be used to constrain the statistics of the very large events rupturing the whole locked zone (4) constrain the viscous properties of the crust based on the geodetically measured deformation induced by surface load variations measured from the GRACE gravimetric satellite mission.

在中亚地震危险方面，喜马拉雅山是主要威胁，在那里它危害了几个国家的密集人口和经济。该项目将贡献有关该地区地震活动的重要信息，更普遍地，将推进有关地震危害研究中使用大地测量的方法。喜马拉雅山脉的遗物和历史地震降低了在喜马拉雅山目前积累的跨度菌株的速度。因此，我们对瞬态地震释放的瞬变菌株如何在主要喜马拉雅推力断层上释放，有可能是不完整的。该项目的长期目标是开发动态模型和获取适当的数据，以验证和校准模型，以评估喜马拉雅山中可能的地震场景的全部范围及其发生的可能性。为了实现该目标，我们建议（1）继续监视并改善MHT上的碰撞耦合的建模，（2）使用动态建模来评估所需的故障摩擦属性，以说明经过观察到的经济震动耦合模式，从而通过强调启动地震启动的启动（3）启动的地震构造（3）启动的动力学启动（3） MHT锁定部分的下倒数边缘可用于限制整个锁定区域（4）破裂的非常大事件的统计数据（4）限制了基于从GRACE GRADIMETRIC SEATLITERIC SATELLITERIC SEATELLITIC MISSION测量的表面载荷诱导的地面载荷变化所诱导的地壳的粘性特性。