Environmental Causes Of Tropical Cyclone Size and Structure Change

热带气旋大小和结构变化的环境原因

• 批准号: 1342049
• 负责人: Elizabeth Ritchie
• 金额: $ 35.37万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-12-01 至 2017-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1342049&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Environmental; Causes; Tropical; Cyclone; Size

This project aims to improve basic understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with size and structure changes of a tropical cyclone (TC) due to interaction with its environment. Through a two-tiered approach using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the fundamental physical mechanisms associated with TC size and structure change (expansion/contraction) will be investigated. Improved understanding of the physical processes associated with TC size/structure change is essential to better predict their future impacts.Intellectual Merit :This project will improve understanding of fundamental processes in the environment that produce TC size and structure change. TC size and outer wind structure determine the total area of landfall impact through radius of damaging winds, storm surge, and extent of rainfall. A better understanding of how TC size and outer wind strength is modified by the environment will result in better anticipation of these downstream impacts and, ultimately, better evacuation planning. These gains in knowledge will be achieved through a combined observational and numerical simulation study. The relationships between size/structure change and a number of environmental parameters will be explored using reanalysis data. Then, through examination of a series of initial-value and time varying, full-physics simulations utilizing a very fine mesh and explicit moist physics, the basic physical mechanisms that govern size and structure change from environmental forcing will be established.Broader Impacts :There are several areas of broader impact that will be addressed in the course of the work. The University of Arizona (UA) is committed institutionally to the research-based education of the next generation of scientists. Towards that end, this project will support early career development of a Postdoctoral Scholar and the education of a graduate student in a STEM discipline. The PI has a strong record of graduate and undergraduate student support and a demonstrated history of fostering graduate research, especially for women and other underrepresented groups.We also target elementary school education via a program called "Adopt-A-School" (AAS). The vision of AAS is to partner a single elementary school with a group of UA personnel to create a close, long-term relationship designed to strengthen STEM education at the elementary level with disadvantaged communities. Hollinger Elementary is a bilingual Title 1 school with a population that is over 90% Hispanic. This school year we have over 15 mentors working in 16 classrooms at all grade levels. Our goal is to provide role models and broaden the vision of these children so that they too dream of going to College. Graduate students working with the PI are mentors in these classrooms and the results gained during the course of this research are communicated to these children as part of enabling and enhancing the STEM education. Weather in general and TCs in particular, provide a source of information for STEM learning that excites the children.Finally, this award has the potential to significantly impact society as a whole. Forecasting of TC activity in general, and structure change specifically, is a problem that affects everyday people globally. Improvement of the understanding of large-scale patterns associated with significant structure change that contribute to forecasting ability is of great importance to our science. The ability to adequately forecast size and structure change, which impacts evacuation planning, wave setup and storm surge, has the potential to improve evacuation planning and disaster remediation. This project truly has the potential to have an impact far beyond the scientific community.

该项目旨在提高对与环境相互作用的热带气旋（TC）相关的物理机制的基本理解。通过使用重新分析数据集和数值模拟的两层方法，将研究与TC大小和结构变化相关的基本物理机制（扩展/收缩）。对与TC大小/结构变化相关的物理过程的了解对更好地预测其未来影响至关重要。智能优点：该项目将改善对产生TC大小和结构变化环境中基本过程的理解。 TC的大小和外风结构通过破坏风，风暴潮和降雨程度的半径确定了登陆的总面积。更好地理解环境如何修改TC的大小和外风强度将使人们更好地期待这些下游影响，并最终更好地疏散计划。这些知识的收益将通过一项合并的观察和数值模拟研究来实现。大小/结构变化与许多环境参数之间的关系将使用重新分析数据探索。然后，通过检查一系列的初始值和时间变化，使用非常细的网格和明确的潮湿物理物理学的完整物理模拟，将建立控制大小和结构从环境强迫上改变的基本物理机制。亚利桑那大学（UA）在机构上致力于对下一代科学家的基于研究的教育。为此，该项目将支持博士后学者的早期职业发展以及在STEM学科的研究生的教育。 PI具有研究生和本科生支持的良好记录，并展示了培养研究生研究的历史，尤其是对于妇女和其他代表人数不足的人群。我们还通过一个名为“ Advent-A-School”（AAS）的计划针对小学教育（AAS）。 AAS的愿景是与一群UA人员合作，以建立近期的长期关系，旨在加强与处境不利的社区在基础层面上的STEM教育。 Hollinger Elementary是一所双语标题1学校，人口超过90％的西班牙裔。这个学年，我们有15位在各个年级的16个教室中工作的导师。我们的目标是提供榜样并扩大这些孩子的愿景，以便他们也梦想上大学。与PI一起工作的研究生是这些教室中的导师，在这项研究过程中获得的结果被传达给这些孩子，这是启用和增强STEM教育的一部分。通常，天气，尤其是TCS，为STEM学习提供了兴奋儿童的信息来源。在本文中，该奖项有可能显着影响整个社会。总体上对TC活动的预测和结构变化是一个影响全球日常生人的问题。对与重大结构变化相关的大规模模式的理解，这对我们的科学非常重要。充分预测规模和结构变化的能力（影响疏散计划，波浪设置和风暴潮）具有改善疏散计划和灾难补救的潜力。该项目确实有可能产生远远超出科学界的影响。