Enhancing Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Extratropical Transition By Statistical Pattern Recognition

通过统计模式识别加强热带气旋温带转变的预报

• 批准号: 0730079
• 负责人: Elizabeth Ritchie
• 金额: $ 48.19万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-10-01 至 2011-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0730079&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Enhancing; Forecasts; Tropical; Cyclone; Extratropical

The project builds on previous work which developed a statistical pattern recognition technique called Projection Pursuit (PP) that can be used to predict the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones based on large-scale characteristics of the surrounding atmosphere that can be gleaned from global analyses, model forecasts, and satellite observations. Normally tropical storms weaken as they leave the warm waters of the subtropics and turn poleward. ET leads to a reintensification of the storm causing it to remain dangerous. The investigators plan to generalize and refine the PP technique, taking it from proof-of-concept to an experimental forecasting tool applicable for real-time forecasting. While the project has a substantial applied aspect, the investigators also aim to understand the underlying physical mechanisms that separate the two categories of storms (ET versus dissipating) embodied by a combination of the storm characteristics and those of the larger synoptic environment, as well as differentiate between various rates of intensification. The ultimate goal is an automated system that can identify likely candidates for ET from model and remote sensing information. The methodology will have application for hurricane and typhoon forecasting and would be applicable in the T-PARC field campaign. Two graduate students and one undergraduate will be supported.

该项目建立在先前的工作的基础上，该工作开发了一种称为投影追踪（PP）的统计模式识别技术，该技术可用于根据周围大气的大规模特征来预测热带气旋的热带过渡（ET），这些特征可以从全球分析，模型预测和卫星观察中收集。 通常，当热带风暴留下了亚热带的温暖水域并转向极。 ET导致对风暴的重新封溶，导致其保持危险。 研究人员计划概括和完善PP技术，将其从概念验证到适用于实时预测的实验预测工具。 尽管该项目具有实质性应用的方面，但研究人员还旨在了解通过风暴特征和较大的概要环境的组合所体现的两种风暴（ET与耗散）的潜在物理机制，并区分了各种强化速率。 最终目标是一个自动化系统，可以从模型和遥感信息中识别出ET的候选者。 该方法将对飓风和台风的预测申请，并适用于T-PARC现场活动。两名研究生和一名本科生将得到支持。