SGER: Diagnosing El Nino-induced Tropical Droughts in Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Change Projections

SGER：在季节性预报和气候变化预测中诊断厄尔尼诺引起的热带干旱

• 批准号: 0739024
• 负责人: Lisa Goddard
• 金额: $ 2.99万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0739024&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SGER; Diagnosing; El; Nino; induced

This is a grant under a Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Program pilot project called DRICOMP, for the Drought in Coupled Models Project, which focuses on making initial explorations into the mechanisms of drought as they are represented in the output of global climate models and on attempting to assess the reliability of these models in simulating drought.El Nino brings widespread drought to the tropics, including Mexico and northern South America. Stronger or more frequent El Nino events in the future will exacerbate drought risk in these highly vulnerable areas. Even if the frequency and intensity of El Nino events do not increase in the 21st century, more generalized warming of the tropical Pacific may still produce a tropical teleconnection resembling that associated with present-day El Nino conditions. Whether or not operational seasonal forecasts can capture the conditions that cause tropical drought is an entirely open question. This study is an initial exploration of the patterns, spatial extent, and severity of El Nino induced tropical droughts during a control period in the 20th century in seasonal forecasts, which have updated realistic initial conditions but fixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), and in climate change projections, which have realistic GHG evolution but no observational updates. The projected changes in the strength of the identified patterns of tropical drought will then be examined for the 21st century runs. This research will attempt to address the following questions:. How well do coupled models simulate the pattern and intensity of tropical droughts associated with El Nino during the 20th century?. What are the primary differences of El Nino variability and change between seasonal prediction models and climate change models in the 20th century?. To what extent do patterns of interannual precipitation variability project on 21st century precipitation trends, and what is the spatial signature of the remaining trends?Broader impacts of this project are in assessing the credibility of global climate model projections of changes in the frequency and severity of tropical droughts. It may also provide a basis for "recalibrating" the output of global climate models, so as to improve their reliability in projecting changes in tropical rainfall. The project will support the visit of Caio A. S. Coelho, a scientist at the Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climaticos (CPTEC), an institute of the Brazilian Meteorological Service, to the United States to collaborate with the principal investigator. This will contribute to an ongoing collaboration between CPTEC and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University.

This is a grant under a Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Program pilot project called DRICOMP, for the Drought in Coupled Models Project, which focuses on making initial explorations into the mechanisms of drought as they are represented in the output of global climate models and on attempting to assess the reliability of these models in simulating drought.El Nino brings widespread drought to the tropics, including Mexico and northern South America. 未来更强大或更频繁的El Nino事件将加剧这些高度脆弱的地区的干旱风险。 即使在21世纪，El Nino事件的频率和强度没有增加，热带太平洋的更普遍的变暖仍然可能产生与当今El Nino条件相关的热带远程连接。运营季节性预测是否可以捕获引起热带干旱的条件是一个完全开放的问题。 这项研究是对20世纪季节性预测的控制期间的模式，空间程度和严重程度的最初探索，这些模式和严重程度在季节性预测中，这些预测更新了现实的初始条件，但固定的温室气体（GHG）以及气候变化的预测，在气候变化的预测中，具有现实的GHG进化，但没有实现的更新。 然后，将检查21世纪的热带干旱模式的强度变化。 这项研究将尝试解决以下问题：耦合模型如何模拟20世纪与El Nino相关的热带干旱的模式和强度？ El Nino变异性的主要区别以及20世纪季节性预测模型和气候变化模型之间的变化是什么？在21世纪降水趋势上的年度降水变异性项目的模式在多大程度上，其余趋势的空间特征是什么？该项目的更广泛影响是评估全球气候模型模型对热带干旱频率和严重性变化的可信度。 它还可以为“重新校准”全球气候模型的输出提供基础，以提高其在投影热带降雨变化方面的可靠性。 该项目将支持巴西气象局研究所的CEIO A. S. COELHO（CACIO A. S. COELHO（CPTEC）中心的科学家Caio A. S. Coelho（CPTEC）与主要调查员合作。 这将有助于CPTEC与哥伦比亚大学国际气候与社会研究所（IRI）之间的持续合作。