AGS-PRF: Improving Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment by Incorporating Storm Size Physics

AGS-PRF：通过结合风暴大小物理学改进热带气旋风险评估

• 批准号: 1331362
• 负责人: Daniel Chavas
• 金额: $ 8.6万
• 依托单位: Chavas Daniel R
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Fellowship Award
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-11-01 至 2015-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1331362&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: AGS; PRF; Improving; Tropical; Cyclone

This postdoctoral fellowship award provides funding to enhance current tropical cyclone (TC) risk assessment methodology by incorporating physics-based TC size information into existing risk modeling frameworks. There is a lack of fundamental understanding of TC size and that leads to an inability to fully quantify the risk of damage from landfalling TCs. The overarching goal of the project will be to demonstrate a skillful physics-based explanation of the observed distribution of TC size, as well as of the size of an individual storm at genesis and during its lifecycle, for integration into a TC risk assessment framework. The project will make use of a combination of observations, high-resolution weather forecast model output, idealized modeling studies, and theory to elucidate the physics underlying the observed distribution of TC size. The results will then be used to develop and incorporate storm size physics into comprehensive TC risk assessments. Progress towards these objectives will be assessed by statistical verification of the skill of the size predictors in observations and weather forecast models. The broader societal impacts of the project will be through better assessment and potentially mitigation of damage risk in both the short (e.g. emergency management) and long-term (e.g. infrastructure planning). The project will also enhance collaborative efforts between scientists and risk managers and support an early-career scientist.

该博士后奖学金奖通过将基于物理学的TC尺寸信息纳入现有风险建模框架中，从而提供了资金，以增强当前热带气旋（TC）风险评估方法。 缺乏对TC大小的基本了解，这导致无法充分量化登陆TC的损害风险。 该项目的总体目标是证明对观察到的TC大小分布以及创世纪和生命周期期间单个风暴的大小的熟练解释，以将其整合到TC风险评估框架中。 该项目将利用观测值的组合，高分辨率的天气预测模型输出，理想化的建模研究和理论，以阐明观察到的TC大小分布的物理学。 然后，结果将用于开发并将风暴尺寸物理学纳入全面的TC风险评估中。 这些目标的进展将通过统计验证在观测和天气预测模型中大小预测因素的技能进行评估。 该项目的更广泛的社会影响将是通过更好的评估以及在短期（例如紧急管理）和长期（例如基础设施规划）中对损害风险进行更好的损害风险的可能性。 该项目还将加强科学家与风险经理之间的合作努力，并支持早期职业科学家。