CAREER: Climate Controls on Hurricane Landfall via the Subtropical High

职业：对通过副热带高压登陆的飓风进行气候控制

• 批准号: 1945113
• 负责人: Daniel Chavas
• 金额: $ 71.12万
• 依托单位: Purdue University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1945113&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Climate; Controls; Hurricane; Landfall

Hurricanes making landfall pose significant risks to society. While we can forecast hurricanes a few days ahead, having predictions with longer lead times is preferable for better preparation against the impending hazards. Currently, seasonal hurricane predictions are skillful at letting us know of the possible hurricane activity over the entire ocean basin. However, such forecast does not pinpoint the coastal vicinity where hurricane may strike. Over the ocean, the large-scale wind pattern consists of gyres around high atmospheric pressure centers in the subtropics (or “subtropical highs”). This pattern evolves very slowly and can steer hurricanes toward or away from the coast. Here, the project will investigate the evolution of these subtropical highs and their connection to hurricane tracks and landfall. Emerging results may enhance seasonal hurricane forecast and help us mitigate future hurricane hazards. The project also aims to develop a future workforce that can combine weather and climate information to minimize environmental risk and improve decision making. The research goal is to understand the co-variability between subtropical highs and hurricane landfall. The project objectives are to (1) quantify the variability of subtropical highs and hurricane landfalls globally, and (2) assess this relationship with respect to the impact land-sea temperature contrast and sea surface temperature. The investigator will analyze historical data and current climate simulations and conduct new experiments using idealized aqua-planet climate model and realistic climate models. The educational goal is to train citizens to address problems related to weather and climate. The project will develop a cohort-based internship program with various partners to provide real-word experiences for undergraduate and graduate students in atmospheric science. The investigator will use this internship to assess skill gaps and enhance university atmospheric science curricula to better prepare students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

飓风登陆会给社会带来重大风险，但提前几天进行预测更适合更好地应对即将发生的危险。目前，季节性飓风预测可以让我们了解可能发生的飓风。然而，这种预测并没有精确地指出飓风可能袭击的沿海地区。在海洋上，大规模的风型由副热带（或“亚热带”）高气压中心周围的旋涡组成。这种模式的演变非常缓慢，可以引导飓风靠近或远离海岸。在此，该项目将研究这些副热带高压的演变及其与飓风路径和登陆的联系，新的结果可能会增强季节性飓风的预测并帮助我们减轻未来的飓风。该项目还旨在培养未来的劳动力，将天气和气候信息结合起来，以最大限度地减少环境风险并改进决策，以了解副热带高压和飓风登陆目标之间的共同变化。 (1) 量化全球副热带高压和飓风登陆的变化，(2) 评估这种与陆地-海洋温度对比和海面温度影响的关系。研究人员将分析历史数据和当前的气候模拟，并进行新的实验。该项目将利用理想化的水生星球气候模型和现实的气候模型，培训公民解决与天气和气候相关的问题。大气科学研究生。将利用这次实习来评估技能差距并加强大学大气科学课程，以便更好地为学生做好准备。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

A Model for the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Response to Idealized Landfall

热带气旋风场对理想登陆的响应模型

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0156.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Chen, Jie;Chavas, Daniel R.
• 通讯作者: Chavas, Daniel R.

Tropical Cyclone Potential Size

热带气旋潜在大小

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-21-0325.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Wang, Danyang;Lin, Yanluan;Chavas, Daniel R.
• 通讯作者: Chavas, Daniel R.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century

到二十一世纪末，北大西洋热带气旋的外部尺寸和结构保持不变

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0066.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Schenkel, Benjamin A.;Chavas, Daniel;Lin, Ning;Knutson, Thomas;Vecchi, Gabriel;Brammer, Alan
• 通讯作者: Brammer, Alan

Characterizing Continental US Hurricane Risk: Which Intensity Metric Is Best?

描述美国大陆飓风风险：哪种强度指标最好？

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037030
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Klotzbach, Philip J.;Chavas, Daniel R.;Bell, Michael M.;Bowen, Steven G.;Gibney, Ethan J.;Schreck, III, Carl J.
• 通讯作者: Schreck, III, Carl J.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Size and Storm Surge Reconstructions From 1950‐Present

1950 年至今的北大西洋热带气旋规模和风暴潮重建

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037312
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Gori, Avantika;Lin, Ning;Schenkel, Benjamin;Chavas, Daniel
• 通讯作者: Chavas, Daniel