CAREER: Climate Controls on Hurricane Landfall via the Subtropical High

职业：对通过副热带高压登陆的飓风进行气候控制

• 批准号: 1945113
• 负责人: Daniel Chavas
• 金额: $ 71.12万
• 依托单位: Purdue University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2020-05-01 至 2025-04-30
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1945113&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Climate; Controls; Hurricane; Landfall

Hurricanes making landfall pose significant risks to society. While we can forecast hurricanes a few days ahead, having predictions with longer lead times is preferable for better preparation against the impending hazards. Currently, seasonal hurricane predictions are skillful at letting us know of the possible hurricane activity over the entire ocean basin. However, such forecast does not pinpoint the coastal vicinity where hurricane may strike. Over the ocean, the large-scale wind pattern consists of gyres around high atmospheric pressure centers in the subtropics (or “subtropical highs”). This pattern evolves very slowly and can steer hurricanes toward or away from the coast. Here, the project will investigate the evolution of these subtropical highs and their connection to hurricane tracks and landfall. Emerging results may enhance seasonal hurricane forecast and help us mitigate future hurricane hazards. The project also aims to develop a future workforce that can combine weather and climate information to minimize environmental risk and improve decision making. The research goal is to understand the co-variability between subtropical highs and hurricane landfall. The project objectives are to (1) quantify the variability of subtropical highs and hurricane landfalls globally, and (2) assess this relationship with respect to the impact land-sea temperature contrast and sea surface temperature. The investigator will analyze historical data and current climate simulations and conduct new experiments using idealized aqua-planet climate model and realistic climate models. The educational goal is to train citizens to address problems related to weather and climate. The project will develop a cohort-based internship program with various partners to provide real-word experiences for undergraduate and graduate students in atmospheric science. The investigator will use this internship to assess skill gaps and enhance university atmospheric science curricula to better prepare students.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

飓风造成登陆给社会构成重大风险。尽管我们可以预测前几天的飓风，但要对预测时间更长的预测却是更好的准备，以便更好地准备即将来临的危害。目前，季节性的飓风预测擅长让我们知道整个海洋盆地的飓风活动。但是，这样的预测并不能指出飓风可能袭击的沿海附近。在海洋上，大规模的风向模式由亚热带（或“亚热带高点”）的高大气压力中心周围的回旋组成。这种模式的演变非常缓慢，可以将飓风朝着海岸驶去或远离海岸。在这里，该项目将调查这些亚热带高点的演变及其与飓风轨道和登陆的联系。新兴结果可能会增强季节性飓风的预测，并帮助我们减轻未来的飓风危害。该项目还旨在发展未来的劳动力，该劳动力可以将天气和气候信息结合起来，以最大程度地降低环境风险并改善决策。研究目标是了解亚热带高点和飓风登陆之间的共同可变性。项目目标是（1）量化全球亚热带高点和飓风登陆的变异性，（2）评估这种关系与撞击海面温度对比和海面温度有关。研究者将分析历史数据和当前气候模拟，并使用理想化的水上风格攀岩模型和现实的攀岩模型进行新的实验。教育目标是训练公民解决与天气和气候有关的问题。该项目将与各种合作伙伴制定基于队列的实习计划，为大气科学的本科生和研究生提供现实的经验。研究人员将利用这项实习来评估技能差距并增强大学大气科学课程，以更好地为学生做好准备。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响评估标准，被认为是通过评估来获得的支持。

项目成果

A Model for the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Response to Idealized Landfall

热带气旋风场对理想登陆的响应模型

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-22-0156.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Chen, Jie;Chavas, Daniel R.
• 通讯作者: Chavas, Daniel R.

Tropical Cyclone Potential Size

热带气旋潜在大小

• DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-21-0325.1
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Wang, Danyang;Lin, Yanluan;Chavas, Daniel R.
• 通讯作者: Chavas, Daniel R.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century

到二十一世纪末，北大西洋热带气旋的外部尺寸和结构保持不变

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0066.1
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Schenkel, Benjamin A.;Chavas, Daniel;Lin, Ning;Knutson, Thomas;Vecchi, Gabriel;Brammer, Alan
• 通讯作者: Brammer, Alan

Characterizing Continental US Hurricane Risk: Which Intensity Metric Is Best?

描述美国大陆飓风风险：哪种强度指标最好？

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037030
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Klotzbach, Philip J.;Chavas, Daniel R.;Bell, Michael M.;Bowen, Steven G.;Gibney, Ethan J.;Schreck, III, Carl J.
• 通讯作者: Schreck, III, Carl J.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Size and Storm Surge Reconstructions From 1950‐Present

1950 年至今的北大西洋热带气旋规模和风暴潮重建

• DOI: 10.1029/2022jd037312
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• 作者: Gori, Avantika;Lin, Ning;Schenkel, Benjamin;Chavas, Daniel
• 通讯作者: Chavas, Daniel