Collaborative Research EaSM2: Mechanisms, Predictability, Prediction, and Regional and Societal Impacts of Decadal Climate Variability

合作研究EaSM2：十年间气候变化的机制、可预测性、预测以及区域和社会影响

• 批准号: 1242989
• 负责人: Young-Oh Kwon
• 金额: $ 69.08万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-03-01 至 2019-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1242989&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM2; Mechanisms; Predictability

Intellectual MeritSkillful decadal climate predictions have the potential to provide enormous social, economic, and environmental value. Such efforts, however, are in their infancy and many formidable scientific and technical challenges exist. Decadal prediction represents a combined initial value and boundary value problem in which prediction capabilities must be largely derived from the intrinsic variability of the climate system. In this project, through an interdisciplinary collaboration, the investigators seek i) to produce an improved and reliable decadal prediction system within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework, including predictive capabilities for marine ecosystems and biogeochemical constituents and ii) to advance the use of decadal prediction simulations in regional and societal impact studies. Attainment of these goals and developing a well-founded decadal prediction system will rely on improved understanding and technical capabilities in four fundamental areas. Thus, the research aims at (1) improving the understanding of intrinsic decadal variability and mechanisms; (2) evaluating the inherent predictability constraints of the current forecast model; (3) evaluating practical forecast system design methods; and (4) generating capabilities for incorporating fully-coupled data assimilation and ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry into the NCAR decadal prediction system. The insights, knowledge, and capabilities developed from these objectives will then be used to establish a modeling and initialization strategy for making multi-decadal predictions. Regional and societal impact studies using the output from these decadal prediction experiments will be performed to advance the science of decadal prediction by pursuing and integrating research developments and insights across multiple relevant disciplines: climate dynamics, predictability, low- and high-resolution coupled climate modeling, data assimilation, biogeochemical and ecosystem modeling, regional weather forecasting, population dynamics, and fish habitats. The end result will be improved understanding of the limits and practical potential of decadal prediction, well-founded modeling and initialization strategies for making predictions, and advanced capabilities for downscaling and interpreting physical climate predictions for societal benefits.Broader ImpactsThis project will produce a well-founded decadal prediction system within the CESM framework that incorporates DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model). The prediction system, enhanced modeling capabilities, and results and data from our simulations will be made available to the broader research community via regular CESM and DART community releases as well as project web pages. These developments will serve as important community resources. This research project in its entirety is aimed at studying decadal climate variability in a socially relevant context. Specifically, the impacts of predicted decadal changes on winter storm events, summer heat waves, ocean ecosystems and biogeochemistry, human population, and fisheries' species ranges will be examined with a focus on North America and surrounding areas. Early career scientists, including a postdoc, will conduct much of the proposed work, and all the partnering institutions are are committed to mentoring activities to ensure success. In addition, two Ph. D. studies will include work from this proposal. Finally, at NCAR, the project team will host an annual student in the UCAR SOARS (Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science; www.soars.ucar.edu) program to entrain a diverse community for the scientific workforce of the future.

知识分子的际气候预测有可能提供巨大的社会，经济和环境价值。但是，这种努力仍处于起步阶段，并且存在许多巨大的科学和技术挑战。际预测代表了一个组合的初始值和边界价值问题，其中预测能力必须主要来自气候系统的内在变异性。在这个项目中，通过跨学科的合作，研究人员寻求i）在社区地球系统模型（CESM）框架内产生改进且可靠的际交往预测系统，包括针对海洋生态系统和生物地球化学组成部分的预测能力，以及II），以推动在区域和社会影响研究中使用decadal预测模拟的使用。实现这些目标并开发有充分的衰减预测系统将取决于四个基本领域的理解和技术能力。因此，该研究的目的是（1）提高对固有际变异性和机制的理解； （2）评估当前预测模型的固有可预测性约束； （3）评估实际预测系统​​设计方法； （4）生成将完全耦合的数据同化和海洋生态系统和生物地球化学纳入NCAR年代际预测系统​​的能力。然后，从这些目标开发的洞察力，知识和能力将用于建立建模和初始化策略来做出多年预测。 Regional and societal impact studies using the output from these decadal prediction experiments will be performed to advance the science of decadal prediction by pursuing and integrating research developments and insights across multiple relevant disciplines: climate dynamics, predictability, low- and high-resolution coupled climate modeling, data assimilation, biogeochemical and ecosystem modeling, regional weather forecasting, population dynamics, and fish habitats. The end result will be improved understanding of the limits and practical potential of decadal prediction, well-founded modeling and initialization strategies for making predictions, and advanced capabilities for downscaling and interpreting physical climate predictions for societal benefits.Broader ImpactsThis project will produce a well-founded decadal prediction system within the CESM framework that incorporates DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecast 模型）。预测系统，增强的建模功能以及模拟的结果和数据将通过常规的CESM和DART社区发行以及项目网页提供给更广泛的研究社区。这些发展将作为重要的社区资源。该研究项目的整体旨在研究与社会相关的环境中的际气候变异性。具体而言，预测际变化对冬季风暴事件，夏季热浪，海洋生态系统和生物地球化学，人口和渔业种类范围的影响将侧重于北美和周边地区。包括博士后在内的早期职业科学家将进行许多拟议的工作，所有合作机构都致力于指导活动以确保成功。此外，两家研究将包括该提案的工作。最后，在NCAR，项目团队将在UCAR SOARS（大气研究和科学方面的重要机会； www.soars.ucar.edu）计划中招募一名年度学生，为未来的科学劳动力提供一个多元化的社区。