Collaborative Research: The Influence of Arctic - Lower-Latitude Interactions on Weather and Climate Variability: Mechanisms, Predictability, and Prediction

合作研究：北极-低纬度相互作用对天气和气候变率的影响：机制、可预测性和预测

• 批准号: 1736738
• 负责人: Young-Oh Kwon
• 金额: $ 54万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-09-15 至 2021-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1736738&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Influence; Arctic; Lower

With the rapidly melting sea-ice, the Arctic is becoming increasingly important not only scientifically but also socioeconomically and geopolitically. Early efforts indicate that there is potential to predict Arctic variability on timescales ranging from subseasonal to decadal. However, skillful operational predictions of the Arctic weather and climate require major advances in our understanding of linkages in climate and weather extremes between the Arctic and lower-latitudes, and subsequently, how best to represent relevant mechanisms in prediction systems. While the changes in the lower-latitude ocean and atmosphere inevitably influence the Arctic, the interaction is truly two-way, in that changes in the Arctic also impact the lower-latitude climate and weather, in particular midlatitude extreme weather events. To improve our fundamental dynamical understanding, modeling capabilities, and prediction skill, using a combination of available observations and state-of-the-art climate models, the team proposes to investigate tropical and mid-latitude oceanic and atmospheric drivers of regional Arctic changes. They will also investigate the role of the Arctic on the Northern Hemisphere climate variability and weather extremes. The team will participate in the European Union (EU)-led international multi-model inter-comparison study, the Blue-Action Project under the EU Horizon 2020 Programme. A deeper understanding of Arctic-lower-latitude linkages, and our capacity for predicting Arctic and Northern Hemisphere variability is relevant to a wide variety of end-user applications, such as weather forecasting, fisheries management, commercial shipping, commercial insurance, and naval operations. Thus, this project has substantial broader impacts. The project team will also actively perform outreach activities to disseminate findings and to educate public through webpages, public lectures, K-12 school visits, teacher trainings, and Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) programs. A postdoctoral scientist will also be trained under this project.

随着海冰迅速融化的融化，北极不仅在科学上而且在社会经济上和地缘政治上变得越来越重要。早期的努力表明，有可能预测从次生季节到十年的时间尺度上的北极变异性。但是，对北极天气和气候的熟练操作预测需要我们对北极和下腹部气候极端和天气极端之间的联系的重大进展，随后，如何最好地代表预测系统中相关机制。尽管低纬度海洋和大气的变化不可避免地会影响北极，但这种相互作用确实是双向的，因为北极的变化也影响了低纬度的气候和天气，特别是中纬度的极端天气事件。为了改善我们的基本动力学理解，建模能力和预测技能，结合了可用的观察和最先进的气候模型，该团队建议研究区域北极变化的热带和中纬度海洋和大气驱动因素。他们还将调查北极对北半球气候变化和极端天气的作用。该团队将参加由欧盟（EU）领导的国际多模型间比较研究研究，这是欧盟Horizo​​n 2020计划下的蓝色行动项目。对北极降低的联系有更深入的了解，以及我们预测北极和北半球可变性的能力与各种最终用户应用有关，例如天气预报，渔业管理，商业运输，商业运输，商业保险和海军运营。因此，该项目产生了更大的影响。项目团队还将积极进行外展活动，以传播调查结果，并通过网页，公共讲座，K-12学校访问，教师培训和本科生（REU）计划的研究经验对公众进行教育。 博士后科学家也将在该项目下接受培训。

项目成果

The abyssal origins of North Atlantic decadal predictability

北大西洋年代际可预测性的深渊起源

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05382-4
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Yeager, Stephen

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

• DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6
• 发表时间: 2020-06-03
• 期刊: NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Athanasiadis, Panos J.;Yeager, Stephen;Tibaldi, Stefano
• 通讯作者: Tibaldi, Stefano

North Atlantic Natural Variability Modulates Emergence of Widespread Greenland Melt in a Warming Climate

• DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079682
• 发表时间: 2018-09-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Hahn, L.;Ummenhofer, C. C.;Kwon, Y. -O.
• 通讯作者: Kwon, Y. -O.

Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice on Cold Season Atmospheric Variability and Trends Estimated from Observations and a Multi-model Large Ensemble

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0578.1
• 发表时间: 2021-08
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Yu‐Chiao Liang;C. Frankignoul;Young‐Oh Kwon;G. Gastineau;E. Manzini;G. Danabasoglu;L. Suo;S. Yeager;Yongqi Gao;J. Attema;A. Cherchi;R. Ghosh;D. Matei;J. Mecking;T. Tian;Ying Zhang

Autumn Arctic Pacific Sea Ice Dipole as a Source of Predictability for Subsequent Spring Barents Sea Ice Condition

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1
• 发表时间: 2020-10
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Yu‐Chiao Liang;Young‐Oh Kwon;C. Frankignoul