Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Linking Near Term Future Changes in Weather and Hydroclimate in Western North America to Adaptation for Ecosystem and Water Management

合作研究：EaSM2——将北美西部近期天气和水文气候的变化与生态系统和水资源管理的适应联系起来

• 批准号: 1243270
• 负责人: Rajagopalan Balaji
• 金额: $ 108.68万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-04-01 至 2019-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1243270&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM2; Linking; Near

This project will examine anticipated changes in the statistics of weather and hydroclimate over western North America in coming decades from the point of view of needs in the management of water and ecosystems. Western North America is already experiencing significant climate and hydroclimate change. Models project that over the next few decades warming will continue, southwestern North America and the southern Plains will become more arid and the northern Rockies and Plains will become modestly more humid. Additionally precipitation is projected to become more intense, variability on all timescales stronger and significant shifts to occur in the seasonal cycles of precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. While these projected changes will have serious implications for water resources, agriculture, rangelands, wildlife management and natural ecosystems including forests, fire, etc. it must be noted that the model simulations of radiatively-driven hydroclimate change to data are not in close accord with actual change. This could be because the models are wrong or radiatively-driven change is being obscured by potent natural variability. The work will involve three interwoven efforts: 1) analysis of policy and management decisions to identify needs for ecosystem and water management, and how to translate science to meet those needs, 2) an assessment of how long term changes in those climate features identified as management-relevant in the decision analysis, play out in terms of day-to-day, month-to-month and year-to-year weather and 3) application of hydroclimate information to problems in water resources and ecosystem management in the monsoon region and ecosystem management in the Plains. Evolution of near term climate due to both natural variability and forced change will be considered, including changes in frequencies and locations of storms, lengths of dry spells, extreme wet or dry years, seasonality etc. Observational records and Reanalyses, including the 20th Century Reanalysis, will be analyzed as well as the models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Long control runs and last millennium simulations will allow an unprecedented assessment of the range of natural variability of hydroclimate and archiving of daily data will allow a pioneering assessment of how climate change impacts weather in the near term future. The geographic area of focus extends from the Pacific coast to the Great Plains and from Canada into Mexico; the research effort will consider large-scale climate features and short term weather and how these features may shift in time and space, influencing the landscapes and ecoregions of the future.

该项目将在未来几十年的水和生态系统的需要的角度检查到北美西部西部的天气和氢气气候统计数据的预期变化。 北美西部已经发生了重大气候和氢化气候变化。 模型预测，在接下来的几十年中，升温将继续，北美西南部和南平原将变得更加干旱，北部落基山脉和平原将变得更加潮湿。 另外，预计降水会变得更加强烈，所有时间尺度的变化更大，并且在降水，土壤水分和水流的季节性周期中发生明显的转变。 尽管这些预计的变化将对水资源，农业，牧场，野生动植物管理和自然生态系统产生严重影响，包括森林，火灾等。必须指出的是，辐射驱动的氢化气候变化的模型模拟与数据的模型模拟并未与实际更改。 这可能是因为模型是错误的，或者辐射驱动的变化被有效的自然变异性所掩盖。 这项工作将涉及三个交织的努力：1）分析政策和管理决策，以确定生态系统和水管理需求，以及如何翻译科学以满足这些需求，2）评估对这些气候特征的长期变化的评估在决策分析中与管理相关，以日常，每月和每年的天气以及3）季风区域中水资源和生态系统管理中的问题应用和平原的生态系统管理。 将考虑由于自然变异性和强迫变化而导致的近期气候的演变，包括风暴的频率和位置的变化，干咒的长度，极端潮湿或干燥的年份，季节性等。观察记录和重新分析，包括20世纪的重新分析，将进行分析，以及参与耦合模型对比项目5的模型。长期控制和上一千年的模拟将允许对氢化气候自然变异性和日常数据归档的自然变异范围进行前所未有的评估，将允许对气候如何进行先验评估。变化会在近期的未来影响天气。 重点地理区域从太平洋海岸延伸到大平原，从加拿大延伸到墨西哥。研究工作将考虑大规模的气候特征和短期天气，以及这些特征可能会在时空发生变化，从而影响未来的景观和生态环境。