Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Linking Near Term Future Changes in Weather and Hydroclimate in Western North America to Adaptation for Ecosystem and Water Management

合作研究：EaSM2——将北美西部近期天气和水文气候的变化与生态系统和水资源管理的适应联系起来

• 批准号: 1243270
• 负责人: Rajagopalan Balaji
• 金额: $ 108.68万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-04-01 至 2019-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1243270&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM2; Linking; Near

This project will examine anticipated changes in the statistics of weather and hydroclimate over western North America in coming decades from the point of view of needs in the management of water and ecosystems. Western North America is already experiencing significant climate and hydroclimate change. Models project that over the next few decades warming will continue, southwestern North America and the southern Plains will become more arid and the northern Rockies and Plains will become modestly more humid. Additionally precipitation is projected to become more intense, variability on all timescales stronger and significant shifts to occur in the seasonal cycles of precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. While these projected changes will have serious implications for water resources, agriculture, rangelands, wildlife management and natural ecosystems including forests, fire, etc. it must be noted that the model simulations of radiatively-driven hydroclimate change to data are not in close accord with actual change. This could be because the models are wrong or radiatively-driven change is being obscured by potent natural variability. The work will involve three interwoven efforts: 1) analysis of policy and management decisions to identify needs for ecosystem and water management, and how to translate science to meet those needs, 2) an assessment of how long term changes in those climate features identified as management-relevant in the decision analysis, play out in terms of day-to-day, month-to-month and year-to-year weather and 3) application of hydroclimate information to problems in water resources and ecosystem management in the monsoon region and ecosystem management in the Plains. Evolution of near term climate due to both natural variability and forced change will be considered, including changes in frequencies and locations of storms, lengths of dry spells, extreme wet or dry years, seasonality etc. Observational records and Reanalyses, including the 20th Century Reanalysis, will be analyzed as well as the models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Long control runs and last millennium simulations will allow an unprecedented assessment of the range of natural variability of hydroclimate and archiving of daily data will allow a pioneering assessment of how climate change impacts weather in the near term future. The geographic area of focus extends from the Pacific coast to the Great Plains and from Canada into Mexico; the research effort will consider large-scale climate features and short term weather and how these features may shift in time and space, influencing the landscapes and ecoregions of the future.

该项目将在未来几十年的水和生态系统的需要的角度检查到北美西部西部的天气和氢气气候统计数据的预期变化。 北美西部已经发生了重大气候和氢化气候变化。 模型预测，在接下来的几十年中，升温将继续，北美西南部和南平原将变得更加干旱，北部落基山脉和平原将变得更加潮湿。 另外，预计降水会变得更加强烈，所有时间尺度的变化更大，并且在降水，土壤水分和水流的季节性周期中发生明显的转变。 尽管这些预计的变化将对水资源，农业，牧场，野生动植物管理和自然生态系统产生严重影响，包括森林，火灾等。必须指出的是，辐射驱动的氢化气候变化的模型模拟与数据的模型模拟并未与实际变化密切相关。 这可能是因为模型是错误的，或者辐射驱动的变化被有效的自然变异性所掩盖。 这项工作将涉及三个交织的努力：1）分析政策和管理决策，以确定生态系统和水管理的需求，以及如何翻译科学以满足这些需求的评估，2）评估在决策分析中与管理相关的那些气候特征中的长期变化，以日常，每月的水平和年度水分范围的范围播放，以销售与日常生活，并逐年播放。平原的地区和生态系统管理。 将考虑由于自然可变性和强迫变化而导致的近期气候的演变，包括暴风雨的频率和位置的变化，干咒的长度，极端潮湿或干燥的年份，季节性等，包括20世纪的重新分析（包括20世纪的重新分析），以及将允许分析模型的模型，并允许在偶数上进行模型5型模型。在氢化气候和每日数据归档的自然变异范围内，将允许对气候变化在近期影响天气如何影响天气的开创性评估。 重点地理区域从太平洋海岸延伸到大平原，从加拿大延伸到墨西哥。研究工作将考虑大规模的气候特征和短期天气，以及这些特征可能会在时空发生变化，从而影响未来的景观和生态环境。