CNH: Collaborative Research: Interactions Between Changing Climate and Technological Innovations in Agricultural Decision Making: Implications for Land Use and Sustainability

CNH：合作研究：气候变化与农业决策技术创新之间的相互作用：对土地利用和可持续性的影响

• 批准号: 0709653
• 负责人: Rajagopalan Balaji
• 金额: $ 6.72万
• 依托单位: University of Colorado at Boulder
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2012-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0709653&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Interactions; Between

Agriculture plays a central role in global food production and food security, and is among the societal sectors most vulnerable to climate variability and change. A marked increase in rainfall since the 1970s has contributed to major changes in land use in the Pampas of Argentina, the focus of this study: continuous cropping has widely replaced ecologically-sound agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if (as is entirely possible) climate reverts to a drier epoch. As there is much uncertainty about projected paths of future climate, particularly on regional scales and short time horizons (25-30 years hence), this project will explore various plausible climate scenarios to anticipate potential impacts on agricultural systems together with advances in agricultural technology that may affect productivity and vulnerability to climate. The central goal of this study is to improve understanding of linkages between agricultural ecosystems, uncertain decadal climate trajectories, technological innovations that decrease vulnerability to climate stresses, human decision-making, and land use and tenure changes over periods of a few decades. To achieve this goal, the investigators will build scenarios of inter-decadal climate variability; assess the impacts of climate variability on current and adapted agricultural production systems; simulate biological and economic effects of genetically-improved crops tolerant to drought stress; study the diffusion of this technological innovation; (5) develop models of individual decision-making and use these models to assess emerging regional-scale patterns of land use and land tenure and their implications for sustainability of production systems. Agricultural production involves real-world decisions with important economic consequences, and thus is a useful test bed to understand decision-making in complex natural-human systems. This project will develop new insights on decision-making processes in agriculture, including individual and group learning, and adaptation to plausible climate changes. On a broader scale, the research will implement tools to assess the regional implications of climate change in the next 25-30 years, a scale relevant to resource management, and infrastructure and investment planning. Climate fluctuations will be explored in the context of important technological changes that may shape agriculture over the next decades. One highlight of the project is the active involvement of farmers and operational producers of climate information (the Argentine Met Service) that guarantee the relevance of the research, facilitate and demand outreach, and ensures stakeholders'' ownership of the process. Finally, similarity in experienced climate fluctuations, production scale, technology and crops grown, and land tenure regimes of the Pampas to those in the US Midwest suggest a broader relevance of the project''s results.

农业在全球粮食生产和粮食安全中起着核心作用，并且是最容易受到气候变化和变化的社会领域之一。自1970年代以来，降雨量的显着增加导致了阿根廷潘帕斯（Pampas）的土地利用发生重大变化，这项研究的重点：连续的种植已广泛取代生态上所产生的农业 - 农业 - 施工。然而，如果（完全可能的）气候恢复到干燥的时期，则随着降雨量增加而发展的生产系统可能是不可行的。由于未来气候的预期途径有很多不确定性，尤其是在区域规模和短时间内（25 - 30年），因此该项目将探索各种可行的气候场景，以期待对农业系统的潜在影响，以及在农业技术方面的进步，这些都会影响到农业技术的进步。可能会影响生产力和气候脆弱性。这项研究的核心目的是提高对农业生态系统之间联系，不确定的衰老气候轨迹之间的联系，减少气候压力脆弱性的技术创新，人类决策，土地利用以及在几十年中的土地利用和权限变化。为了实现这一目标，调查人员将建立少年气候变化的方案；评估气候变异性对当前和改编的农业生产系统的影响；模拟遗传对干旱胁迫的遗传性作物的生物学和经济影响；研究这种技术创新的扩散； （5）开发个人决策的模型，并使用这些模型来评估新兴的土地使用和土地权限的区域规模模式及其对生产系统可持续性的影响。农业生产涉及具有重要经济后果的现实决策，因此是一个有用的测试床，可以理解复杂的自然人类系统中的决策。该项目将开发有关农业决策过程的新见解，包括个人和群体学习，并适应了合理的气候变化。在更广泛的范围内，该研究将实施工具，以评估未来25 - 30年中气候变化的区域影响，这是与资源管理以及基础设施和投资计划有关的规模。在重要的技术变化的背景下，将探索气候波动，这些变化可能会在未来几十年中塑造农业。该项目的一大亮点是农民和气候信息的运营生产者（阿根廷大都会服务）的积极参与，这些介绍可以保证研究，促进和需求宣传研究的相关性，并确保利益相关者对流程的所有权。最后，在经验丰富的气候波动，生产规模，技术和农作物以及潘帕斯的土地终身制与美国中西部人的土地终身制方面的相似性表明该项目的结果具有更广泛的相关性。