RAPID: Pyroclastic Surge Dynamics in the 2010 Merapi Eruption

RAPID：2010 年默拉皮火山喷发的火山碎屑涌动动力学

• 批准号: 1125069
• 负责人: Barry Voight
• 金额: $ 4.95万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2014-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1125069&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Pyroclastic; Surge; Dynamics; 2010

This is a RAPID award to investigate the dynamics of pyroclastic surge deposits created by the catastrophic 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Pyroclastic flows and surges cause most casualties in volcanic eruptions but understanding of surge processes is lagging due to the paucity of major events such as the one displayed by Merapi during its recent eruption phase. This investigator and his team have developed a statistically constrained procedure for lava dome-collapse type pyroclastic flows to estimate areas of inundation following an active event. Dynamic behavior of associated surges can be included by consideration of the physics of surge flow, mass flux and air entrainment, and local topography. The method has been applied to several volcano crises, notably the 2006 eruption of Merapi and 2007 and 2010 crises at Montserrat. It is also being used for hazards evaluations at other locations worldwide, but while of proven utility it is restricted to a particular type of flow process. The recent Oct-Nov 2010 eruption at Merapi offers a rare "Once-in-a-Century" opportunity to extend and constrain physics-based modeling to column-collapse type pyroclastic flows with associated ash-cloud surges. This Merapi eruption started in its traditional dome-collapse mode but developed into a major VEI~4 explosive eruption, the largest eruption there since (at least) 1872. The likelihood of an explosive eruption on this scale was forecast by the PI and his team, and now that it has occurred it is incumbent to maximize the scientific and other impacts. It is proposed to further refine the surge model for Merapi that would carry over to other flow modeling methods such as Titan2D which inadequately address the surge issue. The proposed study of the surges addresses a target of opportunity and needs to be carried out soon because the thin deposits are perishable and key information would be lost. Thus a RAPID award is the most appropriate mechanism for supporting the proposed work. The broader impacts are many and include as beneficiaries of this research organizations that foster risk mitigation planning and crisis response, such as volcano observatories worldwide, academic advisors to crises, and those such as the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) that often aid crisis responses generally. Ultimately it is the often-large populations living on the flanks of dangerous volcanoes who may benefit most. Findings are expected to be disseminated to academics and practitioners through rapid communication at international and national scientific meetings and workshops, lectures at academic and government institutions and local observatories, abstracts of presentations in published works, and articles in peer-reviewed high-profile scientific journals, and electronic media.

这是一个快速奖励，旨在调查由印度尼西亚默拉皮火山灾难性2010年爆发产生的火山碎屑浪涌沉积物的动态。 火山碎屑流和潮流导致火山喷发中的大多数人员伤亡，但是由于默拉皮最近的喷发阶段，人们对浪涌过程的理解落后于浪涌过程。 该研究人员及其团队为熔岩圆顶崩溃型火山碎屑流提供了统计上限制的程序，以估计活动事件后的淹没区域。可以通过考虑潮流流量，质量通量和空气夹带以及局部地形的物理学来包括相关潮流的动态行为。该方法已应用于几个火山危机，尤其是Merapi的2006年爆发，2007年和2010年在Montserrat的危机。它也被用于全球其他地方的危害评估，但是虽然有证明的效用，但它仅限于特定类型的流动过程。 最近在梅拉皮（Merapi）上的10月-nov 2010年喷发提供了罕见的“曾经是世纪”的机会，可以将基于物理的建模扩展到与相关的ash-cloud Surges的柱状爆发类型的火山碎屑流中。这种梅拉皮爆发始于传统的圆顶崩溃模式，但发展成为一次重大的爆炸性爆发，这是自1872年（至少）1872年以来最大的爆发。PI及其团队预测了这种规模爆炸性喷发的可能性，现在已经发生了它的科学和其他影响。建议进一步完善默拉皮的激增模型，该模型将延续到其他流程建模方法（例如Titan2D）等其他问题，这些方法不足以解决激增问题。拟议的有关潮流的研究针对机会的目标，并且需要尽快进行，因为稀薄的沉积物是可腐烂的，关键信息将丢失。因此，快速奖励是支持拟议工作的最合适的机制。 更广泛的影响是许多研究组织的受益人，这些组织的受益人促进了减轻风险的缓解计划和危机反应，例如全球火山观察员，危机的学术顾问，以及诸如世界火山观察员组织（WOVO）等人通常有助于危机的反应。 最终，通常是居住在危险火山的侧面的大量人口可能受益。预计通过在国际和国家科学会议和研讨会上进行快速沟通，学术和政府机构的讲座以及当地观察员的讲座，出版作品中的演讲摘要以及在PEER回顾的高调科学期刊上的文章以及电子媒体中的摘要以及电子媒体。