Firms, Networks and Shocks: An Empirical Perspective

公司、网络和冲击：实证视角

• 批准号: 1124073
• 负责人: Ali Hortacsu
• 金额: $ 27.23万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-08-01 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1124073&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Firms; Networks; Shocks; Empirical; Perspective

This award funds research on how economic shocks move through an entire economy via network links between individual firms.A modern economy is comprised of intricately linked production units. The structure of this production network is one of the key determinants of how shocks are transmitted throughout the economy. Understanding the structure of the production network and how it affects the propagation of economic shocks can inform government policy regarding how to prepare for and recover from adverse shocks, such as natural disasters, energy price spikes, and financial shocks such as the bankruptcy of key suppliers and customers.The network structure of production and its effect on shock propagation has been studied in previous research, but only at the sectoral level using input-output tables. The first project will empirically characterize the inter-firm production network in the U.S., mapping the individual supplier-customer links in the production economy. The investigator develops a model of network formation to fit key facts about the network. That model is then used to simulate how shocks to individual firms propagate through the supply chain and, potentially, to the whole economy. The second project will study intra-firm linkages between production plants owned by multi-plant firms. Understanding why firms expand into vertically related businesses can provide us with insights regarding how managerial/entrepreneurial talent diffuses through the economy, and also potentially inform policy regarding vertical acquisitions/mergers. The project uncovers and aims to explain an empirical puzzle: there are very few internal shipments between seemingly vertically related plants of multi-plant firms. This suggests vertical integration is not necessarily about facilitating the flow of physical inputs between productive units, but rather intangible inputs, such as management practices and R&D output/manufacturing know-how. The third project in the proposal was motivated by U.S. Treasury's Auto Warranty Commitment program in 2009, which provided a government back-stop against warranties issued by GM and Chrysler. The investigator studies the linkage between the financial health of warranty-issuing durable goods manufacturers (such as auto manufacturers) and consumer expectations regarding the firm's viability. After establishing the existence and magnitude of this link in the U.S. auto industry using very detailed data on used car auctions, the potential for fundamental instabilities in the U.S. auto manufacturing sector due to multiple equilibria/bank-run type dynamics is studied through an empirically calibrated model. The model is then used to assess the effectiveness of government policies (such as warranty back-stop programs) to thwart such dynamics.

该奖项资助了有关经济冲击如何通过单个公司之间的网络联系在整个经济中转移的研究。现代经济由复杂的链接生产单元组成。该生产网络的结构是整个经济中冲击如何传播的关键决定因素之一。了解生产网络的结构及其如何影响经济冲击的传播可以为政府政策提供有关如何准备和从不利冲击中恢复的政策，例如自然灾害，能源价格尖峰以及主要供应商和客户破产（例如，网络的破产）的生产及其对冲击的效果的经济冲击，在先前的研究中，仅在该部门层面上进行了研究，但仅在其上进行了损害。 第一个项目将在经验上表征美国的企业间生产网络，并绘制生产经济中的个别供应商客户链接。研究人员开发了网络形成模型，以适合有关网络的关键事实。 然后，该模型被用来模拟对单个公司的震惊如何通过供应链以及整个经济传播。第二个项目将研究多种植物公司拥有的生产工厂之间的确保联系。了解为什么公司扩展到垂直相关的业务可以为我们提供有关管理/企业家人才如何通过经济扩散的见解，并有可能为垂直收购/合并提供信息。该项目发现并旨在解释一个经验难题：看似垂直相关的多植物公司的植物之间的内部运输很少。这表明垂直整合不一定是关于促进生产单元之间物理输入的流动，而是无形的输入，例如管理实践和R＆D输出/制造业专有技术。该提案中的第三个项目是由2009年美国财政部的汽车保修承诺计划激发的，该计划为政府提供了政府的后台，以反对通用汽车和克莱斯勒签发的保修。研究人员研究了保修耐用商品制造商（例如汽车制造商）的财务状况与消费者对公司生存能力的期望之间的联系。通过经过经验校准的模型研究了该链接在美国汽车行业中的存在和幅度之后，由于多种均衡/银行运营类型的动力学，美国汽车制造业的基本不稳定性的潜力。然后，该模型用于评估政府政策（例如保修后台计划）的有效性，以阻止这种动态。