Doctoral Dissertation Research: Fingerprints of Global Warming in Worldwide Public Attitudes

博士论文研究：全球变暖在全球公众态度中的指纹

• 批准号: 1102785
• 负责人: Brenton Yarnal
• 金额: $ 0.61万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-04-01 至 2012-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1102785&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Fingerprints; Global

This research will use local climate variability as the stimulus for a natural experiment to test for a predicted relationship between individual experience of anomalous local climate and attitudes about the magnitude of long-term climate change. From Russia's unprecedented 2010 heat wave to the northeastern U.S. "snowpocalypse," abnormal weather patterns are often cited as evidence for or against the existence of climate change. The narratives surrounding these events suggest that public opinion may be influenced by recent and ongoing weather, but this hypothesis has not yet been systematically investigated. In this project a broad multi-country collection of public opinion polls and academic surveys is coupled with historical climate indicators using a new methodology, spatial microsimulation, to create a model of the effect of local climate variability on worldwide public attitudes. The global model is then used to generate predictive comparisons of future patterns of public attitudes under the local climate changes projected by the IPCC emissions scenarios. This research is designed to advance both the methodology of Bayesian spatial analysis and the theoretical understanding of human risk perception and adjustment to chronic hazards. This novel methodology takes advantage of a broad collection of existing data to address critical theoretical questions about human perception and response to climate change. Few previous observational or experimental studies have addressed the role of manifest climate experience in attitude formation about the effects of climate change. The research is fundamentally interdisciplinary, integrating theory from psychology with climatology and social science data using methods derived from Geographic Information Science.Do local climate anomalies influence individual attitudes about climate change? If so, how will attitudes change over time as the impacts of global warming are increasingly experienced? Although the ways in which individuals experience environmental phenomena play a major role in attitude formation and behavioral response, it is unclear both how people perceive chronic hazards such as climate change and to what extent those experiences influence attitudes and behaviors. To address this gap, this research seeks to explain the effect of individual climate experience on attitudes about climate change. If the experience of climate variability is perceived as positive or negative evidence of global warming, it may influence individual attitudes about climate change and decisions to mitigate or adapt. Individual behavior change represents a major source of potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions, and the results of this project will help to explain the determinants of attitudes that shape such changes. By combining the results with future climate projections, this project can facilitate prediction of positive or negative feedbacks between climate change impacts, risk perceptions, and mitigation behavior. Knowledge about the determinants of such behavior will be a critical component of climate change policy and risk communication.

这项研究将利用当地气候变化作为自然实验的刺激因素，以测试当地异常气候的个人经历与对长期气候变化幅度的态度之间的预测关系。从2010年俄罗斯史无前例的热浪到美国东北部的“雪灾”，异常的天气模式经常被引用作为支持或反对气候变化存在的证据。围绕这些事件的叙述表明公众舆论可能会受到最近和持续天气的影响，但这一假设尚未得到系统研究。在该项目中，使用空间微观模拟这一新方法，广泛收集多国民意调查和学术调查，并结合历史气候指标，创建当地气候变化对全球公众态度影响的模型。然后，使用全球模型对 IPCC 排放情景预测的当地气候变化下未来公众态度模式进行预测比较。这项研究旨在推进贝叶斯空间分析方法以及人类风险感知和慢性危害调整的理论理解。这种新颖的方法利用广泛的现有数据来解决有关人类对气候变化的感知和反应的关键理论问题。以前很少有观察或实验研究探讨明显的气候经验在气候变化影响的态度形成中的作用。这项研究从根本上来说是跨学科的，利用地理信息科学的方法将心理学理论与气候学和社会科学数据相结合。当地气候异常会影响个人对气候变化的态度吗？如果是这样，随着全球变暖的影响越来越明显，人们的态度将如何变化？尽管个人体验环境现象的方式在态度形成和行为反应中发挥着重要作用，但人们如何看待气候变化等慢性危害以及这些经历在多大程度上影响态度和行为尚不清楚。为了解决这一差距，本研究试图解释个人气候经历对气候变化态度的影响。如果气候变化的经历被视为全球变暖的积极或消极证据，它可能会影响个人对气候变化的态度以及缓解或适应的决定。个人行为改变是潜在温室气体减排的一个主要来源，该项目的结果将有助于解释影响这种变化的态度的决定因素。通过将结果与未来气候预测相结合，该项目可以促进预测气候变化影响、风险认知和缓解行为之间的正反馈或负反馈。了解此类行为的决定因素将是气候变化政策和风险沟通的重要组成部分。