Collaborative Research: Simulations of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework

合作研究：使用多尺度建模框架模拟人为气候变化

• 批准号: 1049041
• 负责人: David Randall
• 金额: $ 148.9万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-15 至 2016-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049041&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Simulations; Anthropogenic; Climate

Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to conduct and analyze simulations of anthropogenic climate change based on a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in which the atmosphere and land-surface models are based on "super-parameterization." The principal investigator (PI) and his team will develop and test a community version of this new model configuration to be called the SP-CESM. The effects of moist convection, stratiform cloudiness, radiative transfer, boundary-layer processes, and the land surface will be computed by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of the SP-CESM. The CRM explicitly accounts for indirect aerosol effects by using the CESM's global aerosol distribution and composition as input to a drop-activation parameterization. The land-surface model, which runs on the CRM's grid, predicts exchanges of latent and sensible heat and CO2 with the global atmosphere, including those due to changes in fine-scale vegetation and land use.The PIs will perform at least one simulation of the pre-industrial climate, at least one of the twentieth century climate, and at least one of the twenty-first century climate based on emissions scenarios developed for use in the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5). Their analysis will focus on improving our understanding and prediction of critical processes and modes of decadal variability in the earth system, the interactions of the land surface hydrology and the atmosphere, and atmospheric cloud processes. These processes impact extreme hydrological cycle events such as droughts, floods, and episodes of extreme precipitation. The PIs will use the model to better understand the feedbacks and changes to interannual and decadal modes of variability, with an eye towards increasing predictive capacity.SP-CESM output will be evaluated against observations, and also compared with the conventional CESM. This project represents an important alternative path forward for climate models and a different perspective than is commonly used for climate simulation. The research has a high probability of significantly enhancing our understanding of climate and its response to anthropogenic perturbations.Broader impactsThe broader impacts of the research are focused around improving predication for society, providing better tools that others can use, and training the next generation of scientists. The core activity of this project is to apply recent research progress to the problem of anthropogenic climate change, in order to help society better understand possible future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates. Through the CESM project, the PIs' climate model will be released as open source code for other researchers to use and improve in the future. Finally, the PI and his team will be training the next generation of scientists by employing and mentoring graduate students and post-docs.

知识分子值得该项目的主要目标是基于社区地球系统模型（CESM）的版本进行人为气候变化的模拟，在该版本中，大气和土地表面模型基于“超级参数化”。 首席研究员（PI）及其团队将开发和测试该新模型配置的社区版本，称为SP-CESM。 潮湿对流，层状浑浊，辐射转移，边界层过程和陆地表面的影响将通过将云分辨率模型（CRM）嵌入SP-CESM的每个网格柱中来计算。 CRM通过使用CESM的全局气溶胶分布和组成作为滴度激活参数化的输入来明确说明间接气溶胶效应。 在CRM网格上运行的地表模型可以预测，潜在和明智的热量和二氧化碳与全球气氛进行交换，包括由于精细植被和土地使用的变化而导致的。工业前的气候，至少二十世纪的气候中的至少一种，以及至少基于二十一世纪气候中的一种，基于排放场景，用于对气候变化间政府间小组的第五次评估（AR5）。他们的分析将着重于提高我们对地球系统中际变异性的关键过程和模式的理解和预测，土地表面水文和大气的相互作用以及大气云过程。 这些过程会影响极端的水文周期事件，例如干旱，洪水和极端降水的发作。 PI将使用该模型更好地了解变异性的年际和衰老模式的反馈和变化，并着眼于提高预测能力。SPSP-CESM输出将根据观测值进行评估，并与常规CESM相比。 该项目代表了气候模型的重要替代路径，与气候模拟通常使用的观点不同。 这项研究的可能性很大，可以显着增强我们对气候及其对人为扰动的反应的理解。Boader会影响研究的更广泛的影响侧重于改善社会的预测，提供其他人可以使用的更好的工具，并培训下一代科学家。该项目的核心活动是将最近的研究进度应用于人为气候变化的问题，以帮助社会更好地了解温室气体和颗粒物的人为排放的未来影响。 通过CESM项目，PIS的气候模型将作为开源代码发布，以供其他研究人员使用和改进。最后，PI和他的团队将通过聘请和指导研究生和培训来培训下一代科学家。