'Power-sharing' in Post-Conflict Situations: institutional prerequisites for sustainable peace

冲突后局势中的“权力分享”：可持续和平的制度先决条件

基本信息

批准号：
200000538
负责人：
Professor Dr. Andreas Mehler
金额：
--
依托单位：
Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institut für kulturwissenschaftliche Forschung e.V. Freiburg (ABI)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2010-12-31 至 2014-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/200000538?language=en
关键词：
Power sharing Post Conflict Situations

项目摘要

The proposed follow-up project is based on preliminary findings of the initial project. While we have found compelling evidence that post-conflict power-sharing reduces the likelihood of renewed civil conflict, we have also found that this relationship is moderated by rebel group characteristics. We have found that relatively strong rebel groups and the existence of additional rebel groups within a conflict make a civil conflict recurrence more likely. Moreover, findings from our fieldwork in Aceh (Indonesia) indicate that a proper analysis of power-sharing arrangements must take into account the developments within a rebel group. For example, the positive effect of the territorial power-sharing arrangement between the government of Indonesia and the Acehnese rebel group GAM is partly due to internal divisions within GAM. Since the end of the conflict, GAM has splintered and the ensuing competition between the former rebel group factions has replaced the centre-periphery conflict as the main political conflict in Aceh. Given these findings, we have come to the conclusion that it is imperative to analyse rebel group characteristics in greater detail; we especially need to explore which parts of a rebel group benefit from what kind of a power-sharing arrangement and how this affects post-conflict peace. Such research will provide more detailed answers to the question of the inclusiveness of post-conflict power-sharing that was raised in the original project application. We therefore want to further elaborate on the range of actors that should be incorporated in a power-sharing agreement to secure durable post-conflict peace. Specifically, we want to go a step beyond the original project application and take the dynamic organizational setting of rebel groups in a post-conflict situation into account. We thus ask the following: How does rebel fragmentation moderate the impact of power-sharing institutions on durable post-conflict peace?Against this background, the proposed follow-up project builds on recent research on fragmentation in rebel groups. The project team intends to theoretically model the relationship between rebel groups and post-conflict peace. To this end, the researchers also plan to code new variables on fragmentation of rebel groups. The methodological focus will be quantitative, but it is intended to integrate the insights from the case studies of the current project.

拟议的后续项目基于初始项目的初步发现。尽管我们发现了令人信服的证据表明，冲突后的权力分享降低了新的内战的可能性，但我们还发现这种关系受到叛军群体特征的调节。我们发现，冲突中相对强大的叛军团体以及在冲突中的其他叛军团体的存在使民间冲突的复发更有可能。此外，我们在印度尼西亚（印度尼西亚）实地研究的发现表明，对权力分担安排的适当分析必须考虑到叛军群体内的发展。例如，印度尼西亚政府和Acehnese Rebel Group Gam之间领土权共享安排的积极影响部分是由于GAM内部的内部分歧。自冲突结束以来，GAM已经崩溃了，前叛军群体派系之间随之而来的竞争取代了中央外围的冲突，这是ACEH的主要政治冲突。鉴于这些发现，我们得出的结论是，必须更详细地分析叛军群体特征。我们尤其需要探索叛军群体的哪些部分受益于哪种能量分享安排以及这如何影响冲突后的和平。此类研究将为原始项目应用程序中提出的冲突后电力共享的包容性提供更详细的答案。因此，我们希望进一步详细说明应将其纳入权力共享协议中的演员范围，以确保冲突后和平的持久和平。具体来说，我们希望超越原始项目应用程序，并考虑到冲突后情况的动态组织环境。因此，我们询问以下内容：叛乱分散如何缓解权力分担机构对持久冲突后和平的影响？在这种背景下，拟议的后续项目基于叛军群体的分裂研究的最新研究。该项目团队打算从理论上对叛军团体与冲突后和平之间的关系进行建模。为此，研究人员还计划对叛军群体的分裂编写新变量。方法的重点将是定量的，但旨在整合当前项目案例研究的见解。