CAREER: Climate Informed Uncertainty Analyses for Integrated Water Resources Sustainability

职业：综合水资源可持续性的气候知情不确定性分析

• 批准号: 0954405
• 负责人: Sankarasubraman Arumugam
• 金额: $ 40.44万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-01 至 2017-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0954405&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Climate; Informed; Uncertainty; Analyses

0954405ArumugamThe objectives of this research are to (1) quantify the relative roles of climate variability in modulating seasonal streamflow and water quality variability over relatively undeveloped basins in the southeastern U.S., (2) investigate the utility of seasonal climate forecasts in improving water supply and water quality management and in developing adaptive water management plans for promoting water sustainability in regions such as the Neuse river basin, NC, (3) integrate research findings into (i) on-campus and distance education courses at NCSU, (ii) water-related courses at HCBUs in NC, and (iii) summer training programs for junior/senior high school students, and (4) demonstrate to federal and state agencies, research institutes and non-profits the use of climate forecasts in developing streamflow and water quality forecasts for impaired water bodies, for example, in NC. Various measures will be employed to quantify the causal chain that associates climatic variability with streamflow and water quality variability. Multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) forecasts will be utilized to develop streamflow and water quality forecasts, which are ingested into water allocation and water quality management models. Retrospective analyses using these forecasts will be performed to develop an integrated water management plan. This research aims to create a fundamental body of knowledge on understanding the role of climate variability in modulating streamflow and water quality in river basins. It is expected that findings from this research will offer insights on the vulnerability of water quality attributes to climatic variability. Streamflow forecasts developed using GCM forecasts will reduce model uncertainty and improve seasonal water allocation and water quality management plans. Generalizing the findings will help in understanding the potential utility of climate forecasts in promoting water resources sustainability.

0954405Arumugam 这项研究的目标是 (1) 量化气候变化在调节美国东南部相对欠发达盆地的季节性水流和水质变化方面的相对作用，(2) 调查季节性气候预报在改善供水和供水方面的效用质量管理和制定适应性水管理计划，以促进北卡罗来纳州纽斯河流域等地区的水可持续性，(3) 将研究成果纳入 (i) 校园和远程教育课程(ii) 北卡罗来纳州 HCBU 的水相关课程，以及 (iii) 初中/高中生暑期培训计划，以及 (4) 向联邦和州机构、研究机构和非营利组织展示如何使用气候预测，为受损水体（例如北卡罗来纳州）制定水流和水质预测。 将采用各种措施来量化气候变化与水流和水质变化之间的因果链。 将利用多种大气环流模型（GCM）预测来开发水流和水质预测，并将其纳入水分配和水质管理模型中。 将利用这些预测进行回顾性分析，以制定综合水管理计划。 本研究旨在建立一个基础知识体系，以了解气候变化在调节流域水流和水质方面的作用。 预计这项研究的结果将提供关于水质属性对气候变化的脆弱性的见解。 使用 GCM 预测开发的径流预测将减少模型的不确定性并改进季节性水分配和水质管理计划。 概括这些发现将有助于了解气候预测在促进水资源可持续性方面的潜在效用。