The Great Escape: The Industrial Revolution in Theory and in History

大逃亡：理论和历史上的工业革命

• 批准号: 0241376
• 负责人: Gregory Clark
• 金额: $ 11.05万
• 依托单位: University of California-Davis
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-06-01 至 2006-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0241376&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Great; Escape; Industrial; Revolution; Theory

There have been only two basic economic regimes in history. Until perhaps 1800 all societies were in the Malthusian regime with slow productivity growth, and fertility-determined living standards. Then came the Industrial Revolution and the world of modern growth, with rapid and persistent productivity gains. Recently economists have constructed many theoretical models to explain this transition. A void exists, however, between theory and empirics. While models have multiplied, we are still ignorant of the economic aggregates for any country before 1830. Even in England, the best-documented pre-industrial economy, there are no national income estimates before 1700. Those for 1700-1860 are weakly based, and were last significantly improved in 1985. The materials exist, however, to estimate all the major economic aggregates for England to 1260, including skilled and unskilled wages, land rents, capital returns, real output, output per capita, factor shares, aggregate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rates, TFP growth for many sectors of the economy, and tax revenues. English institutional stability allowed much better survival of records than elsewhere. And many of these materials are accessible because of earlier incomplete efforts to assemble price and wage histories of England, such as those of Rogers and Beveridge. This project completes that task. The investigator has been working on estimating these aggregates for a number of years. He has completed papers on many of the components needed: agricultural wages (1210-1869), house rents (1550-1869), the housing stock (1550- 1869), farmland rents (1210-1869), prices for 22 farm outputs (1500-1869), returns on capital (1150-1869), days worked per worker (1560-1869). This project would seek first the completion of the required series, adding fresh archival information where necessary. Second it will put them together to form the national aggregates. The resulting series, the national economic aggregates for England all the way from 1260 to 1860, as well as the underlying data, will be made available to scholars through a web page. The preliminary estimates are surprising. The break in TFP productivity growth rates circa 1770 is much less dramatic than has been assumed. More dramatic accelerations in TFP growth rates can be observed: first around 1600 and second around 1860. Also before 1860 the connection between the underlying rate of technological innovation and TFP advance depended on largely accidental factors. Further there are important changes in variables like rates of return on capital and the skill wage premium long before the Industrial Revolution period.

历史上只有两种基本经济制度。大约直到 1800 年，所有社会都处于马尔萨斯政权之下，生产率增长缓慢，生活水平由生育率决定。随后出现了工业革命和现代增长世界，生产力快速而持续地提高。最近，经济学家构建了许多理论模型来解释这种转变。 然而，理论与经验之间存在着空白。虽然模型成倍增加，但我们仍然不知道 1830 年之前任何国家的经济总量。即使在记录最齐全的前工业化经济体英国，也没有 1700 年之前的国民收入估计。1700-1860 年的国民收入估计基础薄弱，最后一次显着改善是在 1985 年。然而，现有材料可以估计英格兰至 1260 年的所有主要经济总量，包括技术工人和工人非技术工资、土地租金、资本回报、实际产出、人均产出、要素份额、总要素生产率（TFP）增长率、许多经济部门的TFP增长率以及税收收入。英国的制度稳定性比其他地方的记录保存得更好。由于早期收集英格兰价格和工资历史的不完整努力，其中许多材料是可以获得的，例如罗杰斯和贝弗里奇的努力。 这个项目完成了这个任务。多年来，研究人员一直致力于估计这些总量。他完成了许多所需组成部分的论文：农业工资（1210-1869）、房屋租金（1550-1869）、住房存量（1550-1869）、农田租金（1210-1869）、22种农产品的价格（ 1500-1869)，资本回报率 (1150-1869)，每个工人的工作天数（1560-1869）。该项目将首先寻求完成所需的系列，并在必要时添加新的档案信息。其次，它将把它们放在一起形成国家总量。由此产生的系列，即英国从 1260 年到 1860 年的国民经济总量以及基础数据，将通过网页向学者提供。初步估计令人惊讶。 1770 年左右 TFP 生产率增长率的突破远没有人们想象的那么剧烈。可以观察到 TFP 增长率更显着的加速：第一次是 1600 年左右，第二次是 1860 年左右。同样在 1860 年之前，技术创新的基本速度与 TFP 进步之间的联系很大程度上取决于偶然因素。此外，早在工业革命时期之前，资本回报率和技能工资溢价等变量就发生了重要变化。