Collaborative Proposal; Environment, Society, and Economy: Modeling New Behaviors Emerging from Coupling Physical Coastal Processes and Coastal Economies

协作提案；

• 批准号: 0952120
• 负责人: Dylan McNamara
• 金额: $ 10.01万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Wilmington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-01 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0952120&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Proposal; Environment; Society; Economy

Human activities increasingly influence landscape change in many environments, both directly through construction and agricultural activities and indirectly through changes to the natural processes that shape landscapes. In turn, the processes that shape landscapes affect humans, often posing natural hazards. In coastal environments these two-way interactions involve coastal erosion, which threatens coastal communities, and shoreline-stabilization efforts, which affect the evolution of the surrounding coastline. Previous numerical modeling has shown that localized shoreline stabilization efforts, such as nourishing beaches by adding sand, can alter shoreline erosion rates even in distant parts of a coastline. Thus, a coastal community that chooses to stabilize its shoreline inadvertently affects other communities, so that the economies and management of coastal communities are linked. This research will use numerical modeling to address the kinds of coupled environmental and economic patterns that emerge under different decision-making regimes. An economic component to the numerical modeling, based on an empirical relationship between property values and beach width, determines the beach replenishment strategy that optimizes the net benefits to an individual community. Coupling this model to a coastline-change model reveals the unexpected ways that communities unwittingly interact with one another, and the feedbacks that induce some communities to shoulder more of the shoreline stabilization effort than others. In contrast, a different economic-model approach will analyze what pattern of beach replenishment would maximize the net benefits of a stretch of coastline more holistically. This project will investigate the different patterns of coastline change and economic benefits these approaches would produce under different scenarios for: 1) sea-level rise; 2) changing storm climate; 3) coastline physical and economic attributes; and 4) diminishing common-pool sand resources and the associated increase in the price of beach replenishment. Changes in coastal environments can no longer be understood by considering either physical or economic processes in isolation; this research provides a necessary step toward understanding the dynamics of developed coastlines?what causes the patterns of shoreline erosion and economic impacts under various possible futures (given uncertainties in climate change and economic driving factors including sand resources). The results of computer-model experiments testing how coordinated planning for shoreline stabilization could increase net wealth will not only increase basic knowledge about how coupled human/landscape systems work, but it could lead to improvements in coastal management strategies.

人类活动越来越多地通过建筑和农业活动直接影响许多环境的景观变化，并通过改变塑造景观的自然过程而间接影响。反过来，塑造景观的过程会影响人类，通常会带来自然危害。在沿海环境中，这些双向互动涉及威胁沿海社区的沿海侵蚀，以及影响周围沿海线的演变的海岸线稳定工作。先前的数值建模表明，即使在海岸线的遥远部分，局部的海岸线稳定工作，例如通过添加沙子来滋养海滩，也可以改变海岸线侵蚀率。因此，一个选择稳定其海岸线的沿海社区无意中影响了其他社区，因此沿海社区的经济和管理与之联系在一起。 这项研究将使用数值建模来解决不同决策制度下出现的耦合环境和经济模式。基于财产价值与海滩宽度之间的经验关系，数值建模的经济组成部分决定了海滩补给策略，以优化单个社区的净福利。将该模型与海岸线变化模型结合在一起，揭示了社区不知不觉地相互互动的意外方式，以及诱使某些社区比其他社区更加承担更多海岸线稳定工作的反馈。相比之下，一种不同的经济模型方法将分析哪种海滩补充模式将更加全面地提高海岸线的净益处。该项目将调查这些方法在不同情况下产生的海岸线变化和经济利益的不同模式：1）海平面上升； 2）改变风暴气候； 3）海岸线的物理和经济属性； 4）减少普通池沙子资源，并随着海滩补给价格的增加。沿海环境的变化无法通过孤立地考虑物理或经济过程来理解；这项研究为理解发达海岸线的动态提供了必要的步骤？是什么导致海岸线侵蚀和各种可能未来的经济影响的模式（鉴于气候变化和包括沙子在内的经济驱动因素的不确定性）。计算机模型实验测试的结果测试如何协调的海岸线稳定计划如何增加净财富，这不仅会增加有关耦合人/景观系统如何工作的基本知识，而且还可以改善沿海管理策略。