Collaborative Research: Prospects and limitations of predicting a potential collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

合作研究：预测大西洋经向翻转环流潜在崩溃的前景和局限性

• 批准号: 2343204
• 负责人: Dylan McNamara
• 金额: $ 28.44万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Wilmington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2024-02-01 至 2027-01-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2343204&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Prospects; limitations; predicting

This study will address a key aspect of climate change on Earth: the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation through which the ocean provides heat and moisture to the atmosphere. The study will scrutinize recent propositions that such collapse could occur in the middle of the 21st century. Such challenge will be effected by comparing statistical indices of climate to simplified theoretical models (dynamical systems) and to comprehensive climate models. These models will investigate how stable the current global circulation of the ocean is and whether it can collapse over a few decades. The project will support early-career researchers, one postdoctoral scholar, and one graduate student. It will also seek to reach undergraduate students from economically depressed backgrounds.This study will seek to improve our understanding related to potential collapses of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The study will explore limitations of applying Critical Slowing Down (CSD) concepts to AMOC proxies or fingerprints. The framework of CSD indicates that dynamical systems may respond slowly to perturbations as they approach an abrupt transition. Particularly, this study will challenge the recent proposition, obtained with a CSD framework, that the AMOC will collapse in the mid-21st century. Further explorations of this study will delve into the application of dynamical systems in general, and into implementation of methods that go beyond the limitations of CSD to assess stability conditions of the AMOC. The study will attempt to reconcile discrepancies between statistical indicators and results from a) idealized models, and b) comprehensive models. These discrepancies consist of idealized models being able to represent abrupt transitions of AMOC, while comprehensive models seem to be unable to represent such transitions. As Broader Impacts, the project addresses a topic of crucial relevance to climate change understanding. It also will support one graduate student and one postdoctoral scholar, will provide collaborative opportunities to early-career scientists, and will take approximately 100 students from economically depressed backgrounds to a learning camp at the University of North Carolina Wilmington.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

这项研究将介绍地球气候变化的关键方面：大西洋子午倾覆的循环的潜在崩溃，海洋通过该循环为大气提供热量和水分。这项研究将审查最近的主张，即这种崩溃可能在21世纪中叶发生。将气候的统计指标与简化的理论模型（动态系统）和全面的气候模型进行比较，将实现此类挑战。这些模型将研究当前海洋全球循环的稳定性以及几十年来它是否可以崩溃。该项目将支持早期研究人员，一名博士后学者和一名研究生。它还将寻求从经济沮丧的背景下吸引本科生。这项研究将寻求与我们与大西洋子午倾倒循环（AMOC）的潜在崩溃有关的理解（AMOC）。该研究将探讨将关键放慢速度（CSD）概念应用于AMOC代理或指纹的局限性。 CSD的框架表明，动态系统在接近突然过渡时可能会对扰动响应缓慢。特别是，这项研究将挑战最近通过CSD框架获得的最新主张，即AMOC将在21世纪中叶崩溃。这项研究的进一步探索将深入研究一般动态系统的应用，并实施超出CSD局限性以评估AMOC的稳定性条件的局限性。该研究将尝试调和统计指标和a）理想模型和b）综合模型的结果之间的差异。这些差异包括理想的模型能够代表AMOC的突然过渡，而全面的模型似乎无法代表此类过渡。随着更广泛的影响，该项目解决了与气候变化理解有关的关键问题。 It also will support one graduate student and one postdoctoral scholar, will provide collaborative opportunities to early-career scientists, and will take approximately 100 students from economically depressed backgrounds to a learning camp at the University of North Carolina Wilmington.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.