CDI-Type II: Dynamics of Ice Sheets: Advanced Simulation Models, Large-Scale Data Inversion, and Quantification of Uncertainty in Sea Level Rise Projections

CDI-Type II：冰盖动力学：高级模拟模型、大规模数据反演和海平面上升预测不确定性的量化

• 批准号: 0941678
• 负责人: Omar Ghattas
• 金额: $ 200.25万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0941678&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CDI; Type; II; Dynamics; Ice

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Simplified ice sheet models in current use are incapable of accounting for the dynamics of flow transitions that are key to how ice sheets respond to environmental change. It is these regions that are now rapidly changing. The concern is that currently stable portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets that are grounded below sea level could become unhinged and raise sea level by many meters. High fidelity models of the full mass, momentum, and energy equations for ice sheets have the potential to resolve flow transitions, leading to greatly improved predictions of sea level rise. Moreover, extensive airborne geophysical surveys in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet incorporating ice penetrating radar and laser altimetry as well as gravity and magnetic observations have recently been completed by researchers from this project team. These and other surveys provide the crucial observational data from which uncertain rheological parameters and boundary conditions for high fidelity ice sheet models may be inferred. However, manifold modeling and computational challenges must be overcome before this scientific agenda can be pursued. The team proposes a a new research path founded on innovations in computational thinking and innovative uses of computational thinking that addresses these challenges and will catalyze a paradigm shift in the field of glaciology, leading for the first time to systematically quantified uncertainties in predictions of ice sheet dynamics. In terms of broader impacts, the project will involve a robust program of education and outreach, as befits a project with such broad societal impacts. In particular, the team will: (1) Contribute the work to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) initiative in support of efforts to evaluating uncertainties and likelihoods of various ice sheet collapse scenarios and the abrupt sea level response with ongoing climate change. (2) Release all codes developed in this project under open- source licenses, not only the new ice sheet simulator, but also the core enabling technology codes (parallel AMR, uncertainty quantification, inverse solvers), thus benefiting a much broader community of computational scientists working on a much wider set of problems beyond glaciology. (3) Enhance the Wired Antarctica website with an easy-to-use interactive front end that accesses a family of ice sheet simulators. This portal was developed by co-PI Ginny Catania as an education and outreach effort on Antarctica and Antarctic research for K-12 students.

该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏与再投资法》（公法111-5）资助的。当前使用中的简化冰盖模型无法解决流动过渡的动态，这是冰盖如何应对环境变化的关键。正是这些地区正在迅速变化。令人担忧的是，目前稳定的格陵兰岛和南极冰盖以海平面以下的稳定部分可能会变得不受欢迎，并增加了许多米的海平面。冰盖的全质量，动量和能量方程的高富达模型具有解决流过渡的潜力，从而大大改善了对海平面上升的预测。此外，最近的研究人员最近完成了该项目团队的研究人员完成了整个南极冰盖中广泛的空中地球物理调查，其中包括冰雷达和激光高度测定以及重力和磁性观测。这些调查和其他调查提供了至关重要的观察数据，可以推断出不确定的流变参数和高保真冰盖模型的边界条件。但是，必须克服多种多样的建模和计算挑战，然后才能实现这一科学议程。该团队提出了一项新的研究路径，该研究基于计算思维和计算思维的创新用途的创新，该研究解决了这些挑战，并将催化冰川学领域的范式转变，这是第一次在预测冰盖动态的预测中系统地量化了不确定性。在更广泛的影响方面，该项目将涉及强大的教育和宣传计划，因为与一个具有如此广泛的社会影响的项目相符。特别是，团队将：（1）为社区冰盖模型（CISM）贡献工作，以支持评估各种冰盖崩溃情景的不确定性和可能性的努力，并随着气候变化而突然的海平面反应。 （2）释放该项目在开源许可下开发的所有代码，不仅是新的冰盖模拟器，还发布了核心启用技术代码（并行AMR，不确定性量化，逆求解器），从而使更广泛的计算科学家社区受益于从事冰科以外的一系列问题。 （3）通过易于使用的交互式前端增强有线的南极网站，可访问冰盖模拟器家族。该门户网站是由Co-Pi Ginny Catania开发的，是针对K-12学生的南极和南极研究的教育和宣传工作。