CNH: Collaborative Research: Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change: A System Dynamics Analysis

CNH：合作研究：城市对气候变化的脆弱性：系统动力学分析

• 批准号: 0814692
• 负责人: George Jenerette
• 金额: $ 13.5万
• 依托单位: University of California-Riverside
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-09-01 至 2013-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0814692&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Urban; Vulnerability

Exposure to excessive heat is a significant threat to human health and well-being in cities around the world. Urbanization is strongly linked to increasing temperatures through the formation of "heat islands" - places with higher temperatures due to radiant heat from buildings, concrete, and other human activities. Such local effects are likely to intensify with future trends in global warming. Previous studies have shown that the urban poor are most vulnerable to extreme heat, but little is known about the interplay between changing urban climates and the coupled human-natural systems that amplify or mitigate climate-related hazards for different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups at finer spatial scales of neighborhoods and households. Taking account of global trends in urban growth and climate change, this project investigates the causes of variation in heat-related human vulnerability within the metropolitan region of Phoenix, Arizona. An ideal laboratory for this research, Phoenix has a naturally hot, arid climate. Rapid urbanization has increased average summer nighttime temperature by five degrees Celsius during the past 50 years. The research will explain the character of complex urban heat "riskscapes", assess the vulnerability of people in different neighborhoods to heat-related health hazards, and identify the causes of variation of vulnerability within cities. Ecological, meteorological, sociological, and medical treatment data will be used to build an integrated system dynamics model of vulnerability to climate change that incorporates substantial feedback mechanisms from human adaptations. Researchers will use the model to test hypotheses about complex interactions between human manipulation of the environment and induced climate response, to explore relationships between neighborhood and regional dynamics, and to forecast alternative future scenarios. The results will be used to devise alternative neighborhood landscapes and community coping mechanisms that can reduce vulnerability, and to design programs for teaching and learning about climate and health. Innovative methodological techniques used in this study are developing fine-scale, surface energy balance models for integrating and extending climate research over spatial and temporal scales; combining airborne and satellite remotely sensed data with a meteorological model nested in state-of-the-art global climate model output; conducting spatial analyses of heat riskscapes and heat-related illnesses; and community-participatory research on coping strategies in low-income and minority neighborhoods.Meeting the challenges of sustainability in a rapidly urbanizing and warming world will depend on decisions that allow humans to control or adapt to rising urban temperatures. This project will identify community and demographic markers of high-risk environments that decision-makers can use to develop spatially informed early warning systems and heat-illness prevention programs. Model projections for the distribution of future heat-related vulnerabilities and human responses that impact particular places and population subgroups are important for cities on several continents because enlarging heat islands, higher temperatures, and associated adverse impacts on health are occurring globally. Model results will be displayed in a visualization environment that will allow stakeholders to examine alternative future vulnerability scenarios; this will make knowledge accessible to the community and promote better decision-making. Educational activities will be designed for low-income and minority populations, including the production of a children's magazine issue on "people and climate" that will reach thousands of households. Local residents, university students, and project investigators will engage in collaborative community-participation research to promote heat-hazard mitigation in inner-city Phoenix neighborhoods. Information and materials will be shared with city planners and health agencies in many cities.

暴露在高温下对世界各地城市的人类健康和福祉构成重大威胁。城市化与“热岛”的形成与气温升高密切相关，“热岛”是由于建筑物、混凝土和其他人类活动的辐射热而导致温度升高的地方。随着未来全球变暖的趋势，这种局部影响可能会加剧。先前的研究表明，城市贫民最容易受到极端高温的影响，但人们对不断变化的城市气候与人与自然系统之间的相互作用知之甚少，这些系统放大或减轻了不同社会经济和种族/族裔群体与气候相关的危害。社区和家庭的更精细的空间尺度。考虑到城市增长和气候变化的全球趋势，该项目调查了亚利桑那州凤凰城大都市区内与高温相关的人类脆弱性变化的原因。凤凰城自然气候炎热、干旱，是这项研究的理想实验室。过去 50 年来，快速城市化使夏季夜间平均气温上升了 5 摄氏度。该研究将解释复杂的城市高温“风险景观”的特征，评估不同社区的人们对与高温相关的健康危害的脆弱性，并确定城市内脆弱性变化的原因。生态、气象、社会学和医疗数据将用于构建气候变化脆弱性的综合系统动力学模型，其中纳入了人类适应的大量反馈机制。研究人员将使用该模型来测试有关人类操纵环境与诱发的气候响应之间复杂相互作用的假设，探索邻里和区域动态之间的关系，并预测未来的替代情景。研究结果将用于设计可减少脆弱性的替代社区景观和社区应对机制，并设计气候和健康方面的教学计划。本研究中使用的创新方法技术正在开发精细尺度的地表能量平衡模型，以整合和扩展空间和时间尺度上的气候研究；将机载和卫星遥感数据与嵌套在最先进的全球气候模型输出中的气象模型相结合；对高温风险景观和与高温相关的疾病进行空间分析；在快速城市化和变暖的世界中应对可持续发展的挑战将取决于允许人类控制或适应城市气温上升的决策。该项目将确定高风险环境的社区和人口标记，决策者可以利用这些标记来开发空间信息早期预警系统和热病预防计划。对影响特定地点和人口亚群的未来与热相关的脆弱性和人类反应的分布进行模型预测对于几大洲的城市非常重要，因为全球范围内正在发生热岛扩大、气温升高以及相关的对健康的不利影响。模型结果将显示在可视化环境中，使利益相关者能够检查替代的未来漏洞场景；这将使社区能够获取知识并促进更好的决策。教育活动将针对低收入和少数民族人口，包括制作一本关于“人与气候”的儿童杂志，该杂志将惠及数千个家庭。当地居民、大学生和项目研究人员将参与社区参与合作研究，以促进菲尼克斯市中心社区的热危害缓解。信息和材料将与许多城市的城市规划者和卫生机构共享。