Environmental Risk Perceptions and Market Valuation

环境风险认知和市场估值

• 批准号: 0452874
• 负责人: Hank Jenkins-Smith
• 金额: $ 27.42万
• 依托单位: Texas A&M Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-03-15 至 2008-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0452874&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Environmental; Risk; Perceptions; Market; Valuation

The advent of spent nuclear fuel shipments from over 100 temporary storage sites across the country to a proposed permanent geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, would involve thousands of shipments or highly radioactive materials. Both stakeholders and scholars have raised concerns that these shipments will stigmatize properties along the transport routes, imposing costs on residents and landowners. This study will employ experience with an existing spent fuel shipping program in South Carolina to empirically test for the magnitude and longevity of stigma impacts on property values from highly publicized spent fuel shipments. Using as a point of departure our earlier research that found the South Carolina shipments to reduce residential property values adjacent to the route by approximately 3%, this study will include a large geographic sample and decade-long time series analysis to refine estimates of the impact (including the gradient of that impact) on prices, and the temporal stability of that impact. The project will develop a consistent Bayesian framework to empirically evaluate the formation of risk perceptions and the manner in which risk perceptions translate into market determined real estate prices. This framework will provide the basis for estimating hedonic models in order to understand how individuals form and update beliefs about the risk of personal harm due to low probability events. A combination of market and survey data will be used to assess the impact of risk perceptions about the transportation of spent fuel through both urban and rural areas on home prices in those areas.The public policy implications of the study are significant in that the transport routes under consideration for shipment of spent fuel from generator sites to the proposed Yucca Mountain, Nevada repository would funnel shipments through large urban areas in which the potential property value impact is enormous. Opponents of the Yucca Mountain repository have argued that these potential losses should be considered in the evaluation of transport routes and, indeed, in deciding how to manage spent fuel more generally. Yet the magnitudes of these potential losses remain largely speculative. This study will provide more definitive information about (a) whether the negative impact of the shipments of property values persists over time under normal operating conditions and (b) the shape of the gradient in the price reductions along the route.

从全国各地100个临时存储地点到拟议的永久性地质存储库，在内华达州尤卡山（Yucca Mountain）提议的永久地质存储库的出现将涉及数千货物或高度放射性的材料。利益相关者和学者都担心这些货物会污染沿运输路线的物业，从而对居民和土地所有者施加成本。这项研究将利用南卡罗来纳州现有的付费燃料运输计划的经验，以经验测试污名的幅度和寿命影响对高度宣传的付费燃料运输对财产价值的影响。作为一个出发点，我们的早期研究发现，南卡罗来纳州的运输将与该路线相邻的住宅物业价值减少了约3％，本研究将包括大量的地理样本和十年的时间序列分析，以完善对价格的影响（包括对价格的梯度）的估计，以及对这种影响的时间稳定性。该项目将开发一个一致的贝叶斯框架，以经验评估风险感知的形成以及风险感知转化为市场确定的房地产价格的方式。 该框架将为估算享乐模型的基础提供基础，以了解个人如何形成因概率事件而导致个人伤害风险的信念。 A combination of market and survey data will be used to assess the impact of risk perceptions about the transportation of spent fuel through both urban and rural areas on home prices in those areas.The public policy implications of the study are significant in that the transport routes under consideration for shipment of spent fuel from generator sites to the proposed Yucca Mountain, Nevada repository would funnel shipments through large urban areas in which the potential property value impact is enormous.丝兰山仓库的反对者认为，在评估运输路线时，应考虑这些潜在的损失，实际上，在决定如何更普遍地管理消费燃料时。然而，这些潜在损失的幅度在很大程度上仍然是投机性的。这项研究将提供有关（a）财产价值运输的负面影响是否会随着时间的流逝而在正常运行条件下以及（b）沿路线降低的梯度形状的更明确的信息。