Collaborative Research: Mid-Pliocene Global Warming: Analysis Using Three-Dimensional (3-D) Digital Data Sets and Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling Studies

合作研究：上新世中期全球变暖：使用三维 (3-D) 数字数据集和海洋-大气耦合建模研究进行分析

• 批准号: 0323516
• 负责人: Mark Chandler
• 金额: $ 111.91万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-06-01 至 2009-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0323516&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Mid; Pliocene; Global

This award funds a data analysis and climate modeling effort by Columbia University and Duke University to create 3D global data sets of mid-Pliocene ocean temperature and salinity from which will emerge the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period of Earth's climate prior to the most recent past. These universities are aided in their research efforts by collaborators at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the US Geological Survey (USGS). The data sets will be used to drive numerical simulations designed to explore the impact of climate forcing mechanisms and feedbacks during the middle Pliocene.Estimates of middle Pliocene global warming suggest that temperatures were approximately 2 degrees C greater than today. This level of warming is within the range of scientific estimates of global temperature increases for the 21st century. No other time period in the past 3.0 million years approaches this level of warming. The climate of the middle Pliocene displays numerous characteristics akin to expectations of the coming century. For example, microfaunal evidence indicates a reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient with the greatest warming at high latitudes. Furthermore, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide levels were elevated above pre-industrial concentrations to levels approximately equivalent to those that the Earth's atmosphere will attain by the end of this decade. Recent studies suggest that higher levels of carbon dioxide or methane may have triggered the warming in conjunction with altered ocean circulation. However, no study has yet determined a specific set of forcings and feedbacks that led to the change in ocean circulation. The data so far compiled suggest a combination of increased greenhouse gases and altered ocean heat transports acted concurrently through undetermined feedback relationships.The middle Pliocene world provides an unequaled paleo-laboratory for testing the sensitivity of the physical models that the science community relies upon for estimating potential future warming impacts. It challenges the community's understanding of the sensitivity of key components of the climate system and how the system is simulated (i.e., polar vs. tropical sensitivity, the role of ocean circulation in a warming climate, the hydrological impact of altered storm tracks, and the regional climate impacts of modified atmospheric and oceanic energy transport systems.) A significant product of this research is the creation of new ocean data sets that can be used in paleoceanographic analyses and for paleoclimate interpretation and model experiments. The new data will include an update of the USGS Pliocene Research Interpretations and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) surface database, including a 15% increase in overall sites available and the creation of gridded maximum and minimum sea surface temperature (SST) fields to describe variability in Pliocene warm phases. These data will improve the regional accuracy of climate simulations to allow evaluation of synoptic-scale features, such as extra-tropical storm systems, which are a dominant impact on mid-latitude hydrology. The computer simulations to be completed by the researchers are designed to explore the impact of surface conditions, greenhouse gas increases, and model physics on the ocean circulation and global climate of the middle Pliocene. This research will help improve the science community's understanding of climate processes and impacts by using the warm Pliocene world as a proxy for possible future warm climates. The project will provide a unique learning opportunity for post-doctoral and university scholars early in their careers. The data resulting from this project will be made available to the wider science community through various publicly accessible websites. The information would also be made available to a wide public audience through the researcher's activities with elementary and secondary level educators via an Educational General Circulation Model (GCM) developed by the team of researchers.

该奖项为哥伦比亚大学和杜克大学的数据分析和气候建模工作提供了资金，以创建3D全球数据集的中新世海洋温度和盐度，从中，在最近的任何一个热情的气候期间，在最近，这将是最全面的全球重建。 国家航空航天管理局（NASA）和美国地质调查局（USGS）的合作者的研究工作得到了帮助。 数据集将用于驱动旨在探索中期上新世期间气候强迫机制和反馈的影响的数值模拟。估算中新世全局变暖的估计表明温度大约比今天大约2度C。 这种变暖水平在21世纪全球温度升高的科学估计范围内。 在过去的3000万年中，没有其他时间阶段接近这一水平的变暖。中新世的气候表现出许多类似于未来世纪的期望的特征。 例如，微纤维证据表明，在高纬度时，赤道到极温度梯度的变暖最大。 此外，二氧化碳水平的大气浓度升高到工业前的浓度以上，大约等同于地球大气在这十年结束时达到的水平。最近的研究表明，较高水平的二氧化碳或甲烷可能会随着海洋循环的改变而触发变暖。 但是，尚未确定一组特定的强迫和反馈，从而导致海洋循环的变化。 到目前为止，数据表明，增加的温室气体和改变海洋热传输的结合，通过不确定的反馈关系同时作用。中新世中部世界为测试物理模型的敏感性提供了一种无与伦比的古劳动力，科学界依赖于估计潜在的暖影响。 它挑战了社区对气候系统关键组成部分的敏感性以及如何模拟系统的理解（即极地与热带敏感性，海洋循环在温暖气候中的作用，变化的风暴轨迹的水文影响，改变的水文影响，以及在此研究中的范围内的范围和海洋数据的生产。用于古气候解释和模型实验。 新数据将包括USGS上新世研究解释和天气映射（PRISM）表面数据库的更新，包括可用的整体位置增加15％，以及创建网格最高和最小海面温度（SST）领域，以描述Pliecene温暖阶段的变异性。 这些数据将提高气候模拟的区域准确性，以允许评估天气尺度特征，例如热带风暴系统，这是对中纬度水文学的主要影响。 研究人员将完成的计算机模拟旨在探索表面条件，增强气体增加以及物理学对海洋循环和中期全新气候的影响。这项研究将有助于通过使用温暖的上新世世界作为可能未来温暖的气候的代理来帮助改善科学界对气候过程和影响的理解。 该项目将在职业生涯的早期为博士后学者和大学学者提供独特的学习机会。 该项目产生的数据将通过各种公开访问的网站提供给更广泛的科学界。 该信息还将通过研究人员团队开发的教育通用流通模型（GCM），通过研究人员的活动与基础和二级教育者的活动提供给广泛的公众受众。