Collaborative Research: Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Cyclogenesis

合作研究：爆炸气旋发生的集合预报

• 批准号: 9714397
• 负责人: Steven Mullen
• 金额: $ 12.92万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-01-01 至 2002-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9714397&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Ensemble; Forecasting; Explosive

9714397 Mullen This project represents a collaborative effort between Dr. Sanders (Individual award, ATM-9712925) and Dr. Mullen. It involves an investigation of the impact of initial data uncertainty and model error on, and the usefulness of ensemble forecasting techniques for, medium range (3-5 day) prediction of explosive cyclogenesis. The principals investigators are employing fields from a long-term climate simulation with NCAR's Community Climate Model (CCM2) as well as analyses and operational forecasts of a classic case of explosive cyclogenesis which was observed during the Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) project. Critical issues to be explored include the design of initial perturbations, the minimum number of members for the ensemble and the minimum resolution required for ensemble forecast purposes. The results of this research could be of enormous practical benefit to operational weather forecasting.

9714397 Mullen这个项目代表了Sanders博士（个人奖，ATM-9712925）与Mullen博士之间的合作努力。 它涉及对初始数据不确定性和模型误差对中等范围（3-5天）爆炸性环生成的预测技术的有用性的研究。 主要研究人员正在使用NCAR的社区气候模型（CCM2）进行长期气候模拟的领域，并对经典的爆炸性环生成案例进行了分析和操作预测，在实验中观察到了在大西洋（Erica）项目中快速增强旋风的实验。 要探索的关键问题包括设计初始扰动的设计，合奏的最小成员数量以及合奏预测目的所需的最低分辨率。 这项研究的结果可能会给运营天气预报带来巨大的实际好处。