Predictability of Blocking and Explosive Cyclogenesis

阻塞和爆炸旋流发生的可预测性

• 批准号: 9118898
• 负责人: Steven Mullen
• 金额: $ 13.59万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1991
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1991-08-01 至 1994-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9118898&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Predictability; Blocking; Explosive; Cyclogenesis

The overall goal of this project is to determine the predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns on timescales of one to two weeks and rapidly developing midlatitude storms on timescales of one to two days. Sources of error in predicting these phenomena using numerical models can come from the model itself or from errors in the initial data used at the start of the prediction. This research will attempt to distinguish between the two, examining cases of rapidly developing storms (explosive cyclogenesis) and persistent periods of high amplitude atmospheric wave patterns known as atmospheric blocks. The work represents a continuation of research begun under a previous grant. The principal investigator will employ a more sophisticated and more complete version of a general circulation model than he used previously. This research ultimately should contribute to a better understanding of atmospheric dynamics and to improving short and medium range weather prediction.

该项目的总体目标是确定一到两周时间尺度上的大规模大气模式以及一到两天时间尺度上快速发展的中纬度风暴的可预测性。 使用数值模型预测这些现象的误差源可能来自模型本身，也可能来自预测开始时使用的初始数据的误差。 这项研究将试图区分两者，研究快速发展的风暴（爆炸性气旋发生）和持续存在的高振幅大气波模式（称为大气块）的情况。 这项工作是在先前的资助下开始的研究的延续。 首席研究员将采用比以前使用的更复杂、更完整的大循环模型。 这项研究最终应有助于更好地了解大气动力学并改进短期和中期天气预报。