Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation

定量降水的短程集合预报

• 批准号: 9612487
• 负责人: Steven Mullen
• 金额: $ 25万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1996-09-15 至 2001-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9612487&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Short; Range; Ensemble; Forecasting; Quantitative

9612487 Mullen The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. It is well known that the atmosphere is a chaotic system. As a consequence, small errors in the initial conditions of any numerical weather prediction model amplify as the forecast evolves. Because the atmospheric state can never be measured exactly, initial conditions will always contain errors whose magnitude and structure can only be estimated. Hence an infinite spectrum of plausible initial conditions exists, all of which are consistent with analysis uncertainty. A procedure for defining the scope of forecasting uncertainty and improving forecasts is known as ensemble forecasting (EF). EF involves running multiple forecasts starting at the same time, but from different, equally-likely initial conditions. The Principal Investigator will address four fundamental aspects of short-range EF of quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) at the mesoscale: Estimate limits of predictability for QPF by current operational forecast models; Investigate minimum number of ensembles needed to robustly estimate forecast evolution of probability density function of QPF; For QPF forecasts, determine relative importance of model differences verses uncertainties in initial conditions; Determine the relative merit of using short range ensemble forecast at a lower resolution verses a single, high resolution deterministic forecast. The Principal Investigator will collaborate in this effort with scientists within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Successful completion of this research could lead to substantial improvements in abili ty to forecast precipitation. ***

9612487 Mullen美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一项机构间活动，旨在执行和实施改善向国家提供天气服务所必需的研究。 根据该计划，国家科学基金会和国家海洋与大气管理局正在共同评估和支持对USWRP高度优先事项的研究。 众所周知，大气是一种混乱的系统。 结果，随着预测的发展，任何数值天气预测模型的初始条件下的小误差都会扩大。 由于绝大气状态永远无法准确测量，因此初始条件总是包含仅估计大小和结构的误差。 因此，存在一个无限的初始条件频谱，所有这些条件都与分析不确定性一致。 定义预测不确定性和改善预测范围的程序被称为集合预测（EF）。 EF涉及从同一时间开始运行多个预测，但从不同的，同样的初始条件开始。 首席研究者将解决中尺度上定量降水预测（QPF）短期EF的四个基本方面：通过当前的运营预测模型，QPF可预测性的估计限制； 研究QPF的概率密度函数的稳健预测所需的最小合奏数量； 对于QPF预测，请确定模型差异的相对重要性经文在初始条件下的不确定性； 确定在较低分辨率上使用短距离集合预测的相对优点，以节目为单一的高分辨率确定性预测。 首席调查员将与国家海洋和大气管理局的科学家合作。 这项研究的成功完成可能会导致阿比里（Abili）的大幅改善，以预测降水。 ***