绿色创新的路径依赖与解锁策略：基于过程视角的研究

This study aims at the reality that green innovation progress is difficult to promote and the developing process is slow in our country, and sums up such kind problem to "double externality" and "path dependence" coexisting system. Then tries to find a theoretical solution for this kind of system first and then develop an empirical study. This research, according to the principles of system engineering, finds the solution of dispelling the "green/environment" externalities and probes the related equilibrium problems by using the principles and methods of environmental economics; finds the solution of dispelling the "innovation" externalities and probes the related equilibrium problems by using the principles and methods of the innovation economics; explores the "breakthrough strategy of path dependence" and its "running path" by using complex systems theory and the principle of system dynamics. The three parts links with each other organically and comes into being a model system to reach the goal of the research. The theoretical significance of this study is to probe and give a general analytical framework and theoretical solution for "double externality" and "path dependence" coexistence system; the practical significance of this study is to develop a applied research on the green (low carbon) innovation system of our country, this can provide decision support to resolve the large-scale air pollution problems occurred in our country recently and to promote the implementation of green innovation strategy rapidly in China.

本研究针对我国绿色创新推广难、进程慢的现实情况，将其凝练成"双重外部性"与"路径依赖"并存类的管理问题。然后针对这类系统性问题，从过程视角出发进行理论研究和实证研究。研究过程以管理系统工程的思想为指导，运用环境经济学的原理和方法探讨"绿色/环境"外部性的微观消解策略、作用原理和均衡问题，运用创新经济学的原理和方法探讨"创新"外部性的微观消解策略、作用原理和均衡问题，运用复杂系统理论与系统动力学原理和方法探讨"路径依赖"现象的宏观解锁策略和调控路径问题。这三大部分有机衔接，形成模型体系达成研究目标。本研究的理论意义在于，探讨和给出"双重外部性"与"路径依赖"并存类管理问题的一般性分析框架和理论解决方案；研究的现实意义在于，以我国绿色（低碳）创新系统为例进行应用研究，为我国快速缓解目前的大面积污染问题和实施绿色创新战略提供决策支持。

本研究针对绿色创新存在“双重外部性”与“路径依赖”并存的特征，首先，考虑“排污税”和“排污权交易市场”两种政策机制，运用主从博弈模型研究“环境外部性”、分析企业的行为选择与系统均；其次，考虑“补贴”，运用实证研究处理“创新外部性”、分析不同环境下补贴的政策效果；第三，在前面研究的基础上，采用基于主从博弈的一般均衡模型研究具有“双重外部性”系统的调控与均衡问题；最后，运用系统动力学模型分析已知目标和均衡状态情境下的路径规划与系统调控问题。研究过程中，以我国的实际情况、实际数据为基础建立理论模型体系中的基础模型，然后再以建立的理论模型体系为基础对我国的实际情况进行分析，进而达到将理论研究成果适用和指导我国管理实践的目的。目前为止发表论文6篇、录用待发2篇、已投稿审中5篇、基本完成最后推敲准备投稿论文2篇。

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