台风影响下的稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态变化规律

With windborne migration, rice planthoppers (RPH) are able to follow favourite habits in East Asia, to avoid seasonal unsuitable environmental changes and to maintain population persistence. However, the strong convective weather from a typhoon system often hampers RPH emigration process in the vicinity, and thus population residuals remain high. It also causes sudden increase or decrease of local field population, which may result in RPH population outbreak or collapse. Better understanding of typhoon impact on RPH migration processes and its population movements is essential for the accurate early warning of any significant infestation and the effective prevention of severe loss that may be caused by a sudden population outbreak. This study will use the spatial analysis technique of Geographic Information System (GIS), incorporated with the meso-scale model of Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) for the reconstruction of weather background and the 3-D model of wind trajectory for the estimation of RPH flights in a typhoon system, to investigate RPH migration mechanism and its spatial population redistribution under a typhoon system: (i) The influence on the RPH migration processes and its migration pathways form different zones and development stages of a typhoon system; (ii) The identification of source-sink relationships among different geographic RPH populations influenced by the same typhoon system, based on the backward and forward trajectories estimated from the meso- and small-scale meteorological background derived from WRF model; (iii) The dynamic mechanism of typhoon on RPH migration processes and population redistribution. A better understanding of typhoon on the RPH migration will help to improve the knowledge on insect migration and to provide the fundamentals for construction of an accurate early warning system for disastrous RPH infestations and the guidelines for the implementation of an effective prevention for any possible severe economic loss.

台风对稻飞虱迁飞有极其重大的影响，可造成种群滞留、数量突增或突减，甚至导致种群暴发或崩溃。明确台风对稻飞虱迁飞和种群动态变化的影响机制，对实现我国稻飞虱精确预警和有效防控有重要的理论和现实意义。本项目拟结合GIS技术、WRF气象模式和轨迹分析方法，从中小尺度上探索台风影响下的稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态变化规律：1）研究台风不同演变阶段稻飞虱种群空间分布格局，从时间和空间推演稻飞虱种群时空动态变化规律；2）基于稻飞虱种群数量的时空变化和WRF模式构建的台风中小尺度大气背景场，计算回推和顺推轨迹，建立稻飞虱"虫源地-降落区"的对应关系；3）综合稻飞虱种群时空动态和"虫源地-降落区"对应关系，逐一分析台风不同演变阶段、不同结构区域的中小尺度大气背景场和其他环境因素，明确台风对稻飞虱迁飞影响的动力学机制。从而揭示灾害性天气对稻飞虱迁飞和种群时空动态的影响，为实现稻飞虱精确测报和有效防控提供科学依据。

台风对稻飞虱迁飞有极其重大的影响，可造成种群滞留、数量突增或突减，甚至导致种群暴发或崩溃。本项目针对稻飞虱不同迁飞季节（春夏北迁、盛夏南北混合迁飞、秋季回迁）选择了9个典型台风，系统分析了不同阶段和不同台风结构区域的稻飞虱种群时空变化，并应用三维轨迹分析方法重建了稻飞虱迁飞过程，回溯了虫源地，并结合大气背景场，分析了台风对稻飞虱迁飞过程影响的动力学机制。主要研究结果：1）受台风影响，天气恶劣，稻飞虱迁飞过程受阻。2）但台风过境之后，大多为晴朗无风的天气，有利于稻飞虱起飞。台风尾部出现辐合区，风速较小，不利于稻飞虱远距离迁飞，并且该区域以下沉气流为主，常造成稻飞虱聚集降落，导致局部为害。3）台风西部区域盛行偏北气流，有利于稻飞虱向南迁飞；而台风东南区域盛行的偏南气流，有利于稻飞虱向北迁飞。4）台风过境时，台风眼附近常出现上灯虫峰，其上灯虫也主要来自附近区域。5）春季北迁季节，西移路径和西北移路径的台风为主，有利于褐飞虱北迁的偏南风均出现在台风过境和衰亡时期，台风登陆期可能由于偏南风被阻断，由此导致褐飞虱向北迁飞受阻。6）盛夏稻飞虱南北混迁季节，稻飞虱以短距离迁飞为主，台风影响期间，仍然以短距离迁飞为主。7）秋季稻飞虱南迁季节，受转向路径台风影响，长江下游地区稻飞虱迁飞过程受阻，可造成种群滞留，加重该地区为害。以上部分研究结果已经整理发表相关论文2篇，登记软件著作权1项。

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