季节性大气环流对稻飞虱迁飞过程和种群年际振荡的影响

Seasonal atmospheric circulation system (SACS) is the large-scale movement of air, and its seasonal movement controls the annual distribution of rainfall and prevailing wind, significantly influencing windborne insect migration. A better understanding of the impact of SACS on rice planthoppers (RPH) migration and population fluctuations is essential for an accurate early warning of pest infestations and the effective prevention of severe crop losses. Based on almost three decades of long term data of RPH population monitoring data, we demonstrated that the northward migration route of brown planthopper was shaped by the western Pacific subtropical high pressure (WPSH). Immigration volume in the Yangtze River Valley in July was determined by the intensity of WPSH. This study will further investigate how RPH migration and population abundances are regulated by WPSH. Firstly, the influence of WPSH on its northward migration in South China in spring, and its population development and southward migration in the Yangtze River Valley in summer and autumn will be studied. Next, the whole migration pattern of RPH in the East Asia migration arena will be described. Secondly, RPH prediction models will be built with potential covariates from other atmospheric circulation characteristics, correlated with the WPSH such as SST, ENSO and South China Sea monsoon. Thirdly, prediction models will be explored for a holistic overview of the relationships between RPH migration and atmospheric circulation systems. Goal of this study is to provide relevant suggestions to forecast migration and better control migratory pests.

西太平洋副热带高压（副高）等季节性大气环流决定着季节性盛行风和区域性降水，进而影响昆虫远距离迁飞。但缺乏长时间、大空间尺度的系统研究，尚不明确季节性大气环流对稻飞虱迁飞过程和种群振荡的作用机制。基于1977年以来的全国稻飞虱监测数据，申请者业已明确了副高对褐飞虱北迁路线的塑造以及副高年际振荡决定了长江流域褐飞虱迁入虫量的年际波动。本项目拟在此基础上继续挖掘历史数据，进一步研究：1）副高对长江流域夏秋季稻飞虱种群增长和回迁的影响，构建整个东亚迁飞场稻飞虱迁飞模式；2）从与副高相关的其它环流特征量（海温、南海季风和ENSO等）中筛选预测指标，建立稻飞虱中长期预报模型2-3个；3）分析“行星尺度→天气尺度→中小尺度”不同尺度天气系统间的关联，阐释大气环流“调控”稻飞虱迁飞的动力学机制，明确预报模型的生物学意义。从而系统阐明季节性大气环流对稻飞虱迁飞的影响，为稻飞虱早期预警提供理论依据和测报工具。

西太平洋副热带高压（副高）等季节性大气环流决定着季节性盛行风和区域性降水，进而影响昆虫远距离迁飞。但缺乏长时间、大空间尺度的系统研究，尚不明确季节性大气环流对稻飞虱迁飞过程和种群振荡的作用机制。本项目基于长时间序列的稻飞虱虫情监测数据和气象资料，主要研究了季节性大气环流对稻飞虱迁飞过程和种群年际振荡的影响。已取得的主要研究成果包括：1）揭示了西太平洋副热带高压通过调节降水分布和气流条件影响褐飞虱北迁过程的控制模式；2）构建了一个以 4、5 月份海平面温度预测长江下游 7 月份迁入量的预测模型，可提前两个月份进行准确预测；3）揭示了在全球变暖条件下西太平洋副热带高压7月份强度增强、位置西移，进而导致我国的降雨分布和气流条件不利于褐飞虱远距离迁飞，使得长江下游不再成为褐飞虱主降区；4）明确了我国稻飞虱境外虫源的衔接关系，包括我国华南地区秋季稻飞虱种群能够成功回迁至中南半岛北部和中部，越南北部及北中部地区稻飞虱春季种群主要来自越南南中部、老挝南部、泰国中北部地的迁入，我国华南5月份迁入种群主要来自越南和老挝中北部、泰国东北部，而大尺度季节性盛行气流对种群交流起着关键作用。相关研究成果已发表研究论文4篇，其中第一标注论文3篇，为稻飞虱的监测、预警以及科学防控提供了理论支撑。

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