城市扩张过程与住宅地价变化互动机理研究

The urban sprawl or in-depth development depends on the integrative impacts of complex natural and social and economic factors, among which the variation of land price is considered to be a significant factor that influences the direction and strength of urban sprawl, however, the interactive processes and mechasnism between urban sprawl and land price, is still an important and difficult topic and challenenge both of theoretical research and practical decision making that we currentely need to face. Hence we will sets Wuhan city as an example, by using the multi-source data including the nighttime light data, and integrating the theorties, models and methods from RS and GIS, spatial statistics, Multifractal and econometrics to develop the method which can comprehensively characterizing the morphological and effects of urban sprawl in micro-scale of space, and so as to identify the dnamics patterns and local anomalous signs of urban sprawl and residential land price changes, reveal the spatial and temporal coupling relationships between urban sprawl and changes in residential land prices, analyze the common and individual factors affecting urban sprawl and land price changes, try to mearsure the effects of individual factors on urban sprawl and land price from the view of background and anomalous of them, systematically analysis the interactive mechanism between urban sprawl and residential land price changes , anticipate the trend of the urban sprawl and land price changs in different situations, propose the paths and management strategies to control and adjust the urban spraw and land price. The research achievement of this project is going to be used to enhance understanding in theory of the interaction between urban sprawl and land prices from a new perspective, what’s more the purpose of our work is to provide reference for the urban planning and the regulation of the land market in the new era.

城市外延扩张或纵深发展，是自然与经济社会因素综合叠加作用的结果，其中地价变化被视为是影响城市扩张方向和强度的主导因素，而城市扩张与地价变化作用过程、互动机理，仍是当前理论研究与决策实践亟需解决的重要课题和难题。本项目以武汉市为例，通过集成夜光遥感等多源数据，综合采用RS与GIS、空间统计、多重分形、计量经济学等理论、模型和方法，探索能综合表征微观空间尺度城市扩张形态、效应的方法，识别城市扩张和住宅地价演变格局与异常特征，揭示两者的时空耦合关系，甄别影响城市扩张与地价变化的共性及个性要素，尝试从背景和异常的角度测度要素变动对两者的影响，系统分析城市扩张与地价变化的互动机理，预判不同情景下未来武汉城市扩张及地价变化的响应趋势，提出确定城市开发边界背景下城市扩张和地价调控的可能途径与管理策略。研究将从新的视角提升对城市扩张与地价变化互动机理的理论认识，为新时期城市规划和土地市场调控提供参考。

城市扩张与地价变化交互作用过程与机理，是当前理论研究与决策实践亟待解决的难题。项目以武汉市为典型研究区，系统探究了城市扩张综合度量模型、城市地价场精细化模拟方法、城市扩张与地价变化影响因素与作用机理、城市扩张与地价变化互动效应与机理、城市扩张与地价变化调控策略等内容，研究发现：中国城市扩张与社会经济发展间的相关性存在明显的时空异质性，产业结构调整是影响城市扩张模式的重要因素；武汉市经历了以“城市用地蔓延、城市功能完善、空间分异明显”为主要特征的结构性失衡的城市扩张过程，提高城市土地集约利用程度是遏制城市蔓延的重要手段；无论是宏观层面还是微观层面，城市地价影响因素与城市地价间的相关性均存在明显的空间非平稳性，且这一特征在时序上存在分异性，城市地价调控须因时因地制宜；城市土地价格场在空间上呈现出非均质扩散的特征，城市中心和土地质量是这一特征的主要诱因；城市扩张通过土地市场显化城市土地价值，城市土地价值通过规划引导城市扩张，是城市扩张与地价变化互动的重要动力源；分区分类有序推进城市扩张与地价变化“双控”，是有效实现城市扩张与地价变化调控和促进城市可持续发展的重要手段。研究积极探索城市扩张与地价变化互动机理这一极具挑战性的新命题，在刻画城市扩张与地价变化互动过程、揭示城市扩张与地价变化互动机理和完善城市扩张与地价变化调控等方面形成了新的理论认知和模型方法，为提升城市治理水平提供了参考。

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