不确定性径流跨流域多主体水电系统调控的合作与博弈方法研究

Long-distance transmission and large-scale operation crossing provinces/regions and basins are most remarkable characteristics of hydropower systems in China. Climate change and human activities further aggravate the uncertainty of inflow in operation. Thus huge scale of system, complicated interacted space-time hydraulic and electrical constraints, multiple objectives including ecology, flood control, irrigation, navigation as well as energy generation, and coordination between multi-level agents, together make the inflow regulation by giant hydropower systems an intractable challenge, calling for theories and technologies different from the previous. With hydropower of provincial and regional power grids as background, for the coexisting regulation of centralized control and electric power market of China, this project will research on methods of uncertain inflow regulation by cross-basin multi-agent hydropower systems, including operation rules combing aggregated status and decomposing strategies, optimization model of cooperative rules in centralized controlled systems and Nash-equilibrium gaming models in electricity market. A theory and method system is intended to be constructed for uncertain inflow regulation by cross-basin multi-agent hydropower systems. The proposed methods will be used to and tested by hydropower systems of China Southern Power Grid, Yunnan Power Grid and basins of Hongshui River, Lancang River and Wujiang River etc.

跨省区、跨流域、大规模水电远距离大范围配置已成为我国水电系统最显著特征，气候变化和人类活动进一步加剧了配置中的径流不确定性。庞大的系统规模，互制的水力、电力复杂时空约束，复杂的生态、防洪、灌溉、航运、发电等利用任务，以及多层级利益协调，使得大水电系统径流调控成为极富挑战性的理论和实践课题，需要新的理论和方法。本项目拟以区域和省级电网平台下的水电系统为背景，针对我国集中控制和电力市场两种规制并存的体制，开展不确定性径流跨流域多主体水电系统调控方法研究，包括聚合系统状态和决策分解相结合的调度规则，集中控制下合作调度规则优化模型，电力市场下的纳什均衡博弈模型。建立不确定性径流跨流域多主体水电系统调控的合作与博弈理论方法体系，并在中国南方电网、云南电网及红水河、澜沧江、乌江等流域得到应用和验证。

跨省区、跨流域、大规模水电远距离大范围配置已成为我国水电系统最显著特征，气候变化和人类活动进一步加剧了配置中的径流不确定性。庞大的系统规模，互制的水力、电力复杂时空约束，复杂的生态、防洪、灌溉、航运、发电等利用任务，以及多层级利益协调，使得大水电系统径流调控成为极富挑战性的理论和实践课题，需要新的理论和方法。本项目以区域和省级电网平台下的水电系统为背景，针对我国集中控制和电力市场两种规制并存的体制，开展不确定性径流跨流域多主体水电系统调控方法研究，包括聚合系统状态和决策分解相结合的调度规则，集中控制下合作调度规则优化模型，电力市场下的纳什均衡博弈模型。建立不确定性径流跨流域多主体水电系统调控的合作与博弈理论方法体系，并在中国南方电网、云南电网及红水河、澜沧江、乌江等流域得到应用和验证。

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