耦合生态约束与发电目标的西南地区水电系统优化调控方法研究

The hydropower reservoir systems in Southwest China have large installed capacities and large power receiving regions, undertake the tasks of energy generation and peak load shaving of local and remote power receiving grids, causing inevitable serious influences on river environment and ecology. Optimization for reservoir system operation with coupling objectives and constraints of energy, ecology, and etc. is an important problem of inflow suitable utilization in Southwest China. For the characters of multi-objective, multi-risk, multi-agent, large scale and tight coupling of the problem, following subjects are planned to be studied in this project. (1) Multi-level objective, multi-level chance constrained inflow stochastic operation methods of reservoir systems; (2) solution methods for tight constrained models due to interaction of ecological flow and power grid regulation; (3) effective algorithms for large scale multi-dimensional coupling optimization model. For subjects of (1), stochastic optimization methods will be used to construct multi-level objective optimization; for subject (2), large scale mixed integer modeling methods will be used, and constraint successively satisfying algorithm will be proposed to solution; for subject (3), two level parallel architecture and algorithms of cluster and multi-core will be constructed, to accelerated the solution of models in subject (1) and (2). The studies are aimed at constructing feasible, adaptive theories and methods of ecological constraints and energy generation objectives coupled optimal operation for reservoir systems inflow suitable utilization, and the proposed methods will be used to and test by hydropower systems on Lancang River in Southwest China.

西南地区水电站水库群装机规模大、送电范围广，肩负发电和受送端电网调峰重任，不可避免给所在流域环境和生态造成重大影响。耦合发电、生态等控制目标和约束的水电站群优化调度是西南地区径流适应性利用的重要课题。针对其多目标、多风险、多主体、大规模、紧耦合特征，拟研究：一、水库群多级控制目标和多级机会约束的径流随机调控方法；二、水库群生态流量与电网调节互制紧约束模型求解方法；三、大规模多维耦合调控模型高效求解方法。问题一将采用随机优化建模方法，在多种不确定性水平下构建目标分级优化模型；问题二将采用大规模混合整数优化建模方法，并以贯序约束满足方法求解；问题三将构建集群-多核两级并行体系和并行算法，加速前两个问题的求解。上述研究旨在建立切实可行的、具有普适意义的水库群径流适应性利用的耦合生态约束与发电目标的水电系统优化调控方法，并在西南地区澜沧江流域的水电站水库群得到应用和验证。

本项目围绕我国西南地区澜沧江等流域具有生态约束的水电系统优化调控问题展开。根据历次年度交流会的意见，研究重点集中于复杂水电系统优化调度模型的求解方法。项目在生态、发电、供水等多方面约束下，分别建立了集中调度下的水电优化调度模型，和市场条件下的博弈分析模型，并研究了求解方法。代表性成果如下：.（1）梯级水电优化调度随机动态规划的多点寻优方法.针对梯级水电站调度模型的多局部解的问题，采用常规的遍历离散决策的方法获得全部局部最优的位置集合，构建在最优遍历结果附近进行进一步搜索的单点搜索算法，从全部遍历的极值点附近进行进一步搜索，并以多个搜索结果中最优解为最终决策的多点搜索算法。该方法能够显著提高求解效率，在获得相近结果时较密集离散决策的方法减少计算时间至少一半以上。.（2）复杂条件下梯级水电站短期优化调度计划快速制定方法.提出一种基于水电出力与系统负荷趋势一致、降低耗水率等基本概念的梯级水电站群短期发电调度计划快速生成方法，该方法以水库的期末水位、总发电量、总发电水量等为控制目标，以电网负荷为出力分配的引导，通过逐步调整各水电站在各时段内出力来满足控制目标的调度需求，并获得最终的短期发电调度计划。.（3）水电系统长期市场竞争分析方法.针对大规模梯级水电站间的竞争和博弈问题，建立了以调度规则为策略，以发电效益叠加考虑生态、供水等约束破坏惩罚项为收益函数的多人博弈模型；在抽样随机动态规划框架下，构建了长期电力市场中水电站的非合作和合作博弈模型。应用结果表明，在传统发电量最大模型中通过保证出力约束来满足的枯水期电量需求，同样可以通过竞争实现。.本项目发表论文9篇，其中SCI检索期刊论文4篇，授权发明专利16项。提出的梯级水电站优化调度的多点寻优随机动态规划方法、短期发电计划制定方法和水电站调度的博弈分析方法，为变化环境下的电网水电优化调度问题的建模和求解提供了新的思路，具有重要参考应用价值。

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