林地细碎化、劳动力转移与资源禀赋对农户林地投入产出效率的影响机理及政策优化--以江西为例

It is an important economic and technical indicator that the efficiency level of the input and output of farmers woodland is to measure the effectiveness of the Reform of Collective Forestry Property Rights System (RCFPR).This is key nodes of the important scientific issues to study the key factors and its mechanism of the input-output efficiency of farmer woodland for selecting collective woodland operation mode at the new stage.Under the guidance of the theory of farmers decision-making and the input-output efficiency as a guidance, based on the theory of farmers' decision-making and the input-output efficiency, we establish a theoretical analytical framework, the key factors index system and quantitative analysis model of the input-output efficiency of farmers woodland . Taking Jiangxi Province for example,it explores the variation of the woodland fragmentation, labor transfer, the characteristics of resources endowment, the input and output level of farmer woodland and so on，clears the key factor of the farmer woodland input and output levels and its extent and direction, then, takes advantage of the three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to estimate the input-output efficiency of farmers woodland on the role of the explanatory variables , uses the Tobit model to analyze the mechanism that the key factors affect the input-output efficiency of farmers woodland. Based on the above, this study proposed the policy proposal of motivating farmers to increase woodland investment level and improve woodlands input-output efficiency on the condition of uphold household contracting management system of the collective forestland. It has major theoreticalvalue and practical guidance significance to support a scientific basis for decision-making departments drafting and perfect the subsequent policies in supporting forest and benefitting farmer.

农户林地投入与产出效率水平是衡量集体林权制度改革成效的重要经济技术指标，研究影响农户林地投入与产出效率的关键因素及其作用机制是新阶段集体林地经营模式选择重要科学问题的关键节点。本项目以农户决策及投入产出效率理论为指导，建立农户林地投入与产出效率理论分析框架、关键因素指标体系及定量分析模型，以江西省为研究对象，探索林地细碎化、劳动力转移、资源禀赋特征、农户林地投入及产出水平的变化规律，明确影响农户林地投入与产出水平的关键因素及其影响程度、作用方向；利用三阶段数据包络分析方法，测算在解释变量作用下的农户林地投入产出效率，利用Tobit模型分析农户林地投入产出效率关键影响因素的作用机理。在上述基础上，提出在坚持集体林地家庭经营承包制度条件下，激励农户加大林地投入水平、提高林地投入产出效率的政策建议，为决策部门制定和完善后续支林惠农配套政策提供科学依据，具有较大的理论价值和现实指导意义。

林地细碎化程度、劳动力转移和地形和区位条件的差异是导致农户林地投入和产出水平呈现区域差异性特征的重要因素。林地细碎化对农户林地科技投入和林地木材产出产生一定的负向影响，而对竹材产出影响不显著。对于竹林来说，单位面积竹林集约投入水平是影响竹材产出的关键因素，当农户投入能力相对固定以及资金不足的时候，农户竹林面积大反而会导致单位面积劳动力、资金和物质投入强度降低，进而影响竹林产出水平。区位条件中，农村经济发展水平、通达程度和人口聚集度对农户林地投入和产出水平影响显著，对农户林地投入水平的影响系数分别为0.1288、0.1287和0.1629，对林地产出水平的影响系数分别为0.1524、0.1718和0.1989；在地形条件中，山区和丘陵地形对农户林地产出水平影响系数分别为0.1019和0.0169。劳动力为林业经济增长的重要生产资源要素，劳动力转移程度对农户林地投入产出水平存在显著的负向影响，其影响系数为-0.099。从研究结果来看，农村剩余劳动力基本转移完毕，刘易斯拐点已经在到来，中国的人口红利优势正在消失，不利于林地经营效率的提升，也将使林地经营面临再次被粗放化的风险。因此，要加快林业经营的专业化、规模化的步伐，缓解林地经营兼业化进一步加剧的趋势。基于以上研究，提出在坚持集体林地家庭经营承包制度条件下，激励农户加大林地投入水平、提高林地投入产出效率的政策建议！

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