考虑供应中断的应急物资预备供应链协调和可靠性研究

The shortage of effective relief has become a common difficulty faced in many countries and regions in response to some significant unconventional disasters. Overcoming the problem depends on the full cooperation of the government and related enterprises, where the timeless of supplying relief needs to be supported by government’s relief inventory and the enterprises should to insure the later supplies. The efficiency of those activities need to pre-coordinate the government and the related enterprises before one disaster happening. Although the disaster operation management has made a great progress in recent years, few papers considered the case the reliefs are provided by from private firms, so there are many research problems in supply chain aspect of prepared relief. In order to control the external and internal supply disruptions, this project aims to study the reliability and coordination of supply chain of prepared relief, and the contents include: (1)the aversion for external supply risk in the multilayer supply chain structure, (2) the optimization on the contract of supplying reliefs considering government and commercial supply chain, and (3) the allocation of prepared capacities of government and enterprises. We will model those problems using game theory, programming theory and stochastic optimization, and solve some complex problems using heuristic algorithms. We hope to provide some comprehensive research methods and decision-making references to the operations of relief preparedness on unconventional disasters.

有效应急物资短缺已成为各国和地区在应对重大非常规突发灾害时面临的普遍困难。问题的解决有赖于政府和企业充分合作，借助政府库存保证灾害初期物资供应的及时性，借助企业保证后期物资供应的充足。而这些活动的高效运作需要灾前对政府和相关企业进行充分协调。虽然灾害运营管理在近几年有了较大发展，但包含有企业参与的应急物资预备方面的研究还是很少，关于应急物资预备供应链运作上，有更多的问题亟待解决。本课题主要从防控系统外部和内部供应中断风险的角度，研究应急物资预备供应链系统的可靠性和协调优化问题，具体研究内容有：多层供应链结构下系统外部供应风险规避，考虑协议企业供应链内部风险的应急物资供应合同优化，企业储备与政府储备库存的协调优化。课题将利用博弈论、规划理论、随机优化等理论进行建模，对于部分复杂问题借助启发式算法求解。课题期望为非常规突发事件应急物资运作提供全面系统的研究方法和决策参考。

有效应急物资短缺已成为各国和地区在应对重大非常规突发灾害时面临的普遍困难。问题的解决有赖于政府和企业充分合作，借助政府库存保证灾害初期物资供应的及时性，借助企业保证后期物资供应的充足。而这些活动的高效运作需要灾前对政府和相关企业进行充分协调。虽然灾害运营管理在近几年有了较大发展，但包含有企业参与的应急物资预备方面的研究还是很少，关于应急物资预备供应链运作上，有更多的问题亟待解决。本课题主要从防控系统外部和内部供应中断风险的角度，研究应急物资预备供应链系统的可靠性和协调优化问题，具体研究内容有：多层供应链结构下系统外部供应风险规避，考虑协议企业供应链内部风险的应急物资供应合同优化，企业储备与政府储备库存的协调优化。课题将利用博弈论、规划理论、随机优化等理论进行建模，对于部分复杂问题借助启发式算法求解。.经过几年的努力，我们针对系统外部供应中断风险和协议企业参与应急物资供应的供应链合同优化问题进行了研究，由于未能获得充分的背景材料以及问题的复杂性，企业储备与政府储备库存的协调优化未能有效开展研究。在考虑供应中断风险方面，我们引入了金融手段，如中断保险和金融援助策略。在政府与企业合作方面，我们考虑了商业供应链与应急供应链的叠加，能够保证企业参与应急物资供应的积极性。考虑到众多的不确定性，我们主要考虑了期权采购合同，同时，也对不同模式进行了对比分析。到项目结题，针对各方面都展开了一定的研究,完成论文18篇。实际见刊论文14篇，其中，SCI论文9篇，中文期刊论文5篇。目前在投论文2篇，另外2篇论文待基本完成。

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